Big 12 football power rankings for 2025 season, per ESPN's FPI

The college football offseason is all about the transfer portal and recruiting, but also predicting what will happen next season.

A few weeks ago, we got updated SP+ rankings, and this week, we have ESPN's updated Football Power Index predicting the upcoming season. FPI is another predictive metric that ranks each team on its likeliest outcomes.

Here is how ESPN describes FPI:

The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule. Ratings and projections update daily. FPI data from seasons prior to 2019 may not be complete.

The Big 12 should be the most competitive conference in college football and this week's FPI release gives us another projection of the 2025 Big 12 season.

Here is each team ranked by its FPI rating, including each team's chance to win the conference and/or reach the College Football Playoff. For the teams with less than a 5% chance to make the CFP (eight teams), we also added the likelihood they have of winning six games, which would guarantee bowl eligibility.

16. Houston Cougars

FPI Rating: -3.7 (No. 75 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 4.8-7.2

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.2

% Chance to Make CFP: 0.3

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 34.8

15. Arizona Wildcats

FPI Rating: -1.0 (No. 69 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 4.9-7.1

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.5

% Chance to Make CFP: 0.5

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 37.7

14. Oklahoma State Cowboys

FPI Rating: 0.3 (No. 67 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 5.5-6.6

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.9

% Chance to Make CFP: 0.9

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 48.1

13. West Virginia Mountaineers

FPI Rating: 0.5 (No. 66 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 5.2-6.9

% Chance to Win Big 12: 0.6

% Chance to Make CFP: 0.8

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 42.3

12. Cincinnati Bearcats

FPI Rating: 3.6 (No. 53 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.7

% Chance to Win Big 12: 2.8

% Chance to Make CFP: 3.1

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 66.7

11. Colorado Buffaloes

FPI Rating: 4.2 (No. 49 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.5-5.5

% Chance to Win Big 12: 2.4

% Chance to Make CFP: 3.1

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 69.5

10. Utah Utes

FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 46 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.4-5.6

% Chance to Win Big 12: 3.1

% Chance to Make CFP: 3.7

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 67.3

9. Iowa State Cyclones

FPI Rating: 4.8 (No. 45 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 6.7-5.4

% Chance to Win Big 12: 3.7

% Chance to Make CFP: 4.4

% Chance to win six games (bowl eligibility): 71.5

8. UCF Knights

FPI Rating: 6.9 (No. 37 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-4.9

% Chance to Win Big 12: 4.7

% Chance to Make CFP: 6.8

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders

FPI Rating: 7.4 (No. 35 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.2

% Chance to Win Big 12: 7.8

% Chance to Make CFP: 10.3

6. Baylor Bears

FPI Rating: 8.0 (No. 33 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0

% Chance to Win Big 12: 10.3

% Chance to Make CFP: 10.5

5. TCU Horned Frogs

FPI Rating: 8.2 (No. 32 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.2-5.0

% Chance to Win Big 12: 8.5

% Chance to Make CFP: 10.3

4. Kansas Jayhawks

FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 30 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 7.9-4.3

% Chance to Win Big 12: 11.3

% Chance to Make CFP: 13.4

3. BYU Cougars

FPI Rating: 8.4 (No. 29 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 8.0-4.2

% Chance to Win Big 12: 10.4

% Chance to Make CFP: 12.6

2. Arizona State Sun Devils

FPI Rating: 9.5 (No. 24 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 8.3-3.9

% Chance to Win Big 12: 13.0

% Chance to Make CFP: 16.1

1. Kansas State Wildcats

FPI Rating: 10.8 (No. 21 overall)

Projected Win-Loss: 8.6-3.7

% Chance to Win Big 12: 19.9

% Chance to Make CFP: 22.2

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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football power rankings for 2025 season, per ESPN FPI