Contact! Monday's Base Hit Builder

Contact! Monday's Base Hit Builder originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

More fun with numbers as I take you through today's best bets for a base knock.

We'll isolate today's MLB slate's pitch-to-contact SPs — and which hitters they'll face who've frequently put quality balls in play over the last ~25 PAs or so.

Today's Contact SP Targets: (+90% Zone-Contact & +46% Hard Hit Rates)

• STL Erick Fedde — 87.2 IP; 91.7% Zone Contact, 43.0% Hard Hit vs. PIT
• SEA George Kirby — 36.2 IP; 91.2% Zone Contact, 42.1% Hard Hit vs. KC
• TB Drew Rasmussen — 84.1 IP; 89.3% Zone Contact, 44.1% Hard Hit vs. ATH

All Opposing Hitters w/+80% Contact, +42% Hard Hit, & +.260 Expected Batting Average, Last ~Two Weeks vs. LHP/RHP

• PIT Tommy Pham vs. RHP — 25 PA;+81% Contact, +53% Hard Hit & +.266 Expected Batting Average
• KC Jonathan India vs RHP — 25 PA;+83% Contact, +50% Hard Hit & +.363 Expected Batting Average

(For transparency's sake, I tweak hitter's handedness splits to adjust for plate appearance sample size)

LAGHEZZAS LEANS:

Intentionally setting all the parameters really high on both sides of our base hit matrix leaves us with just a handful of results per slate — but I gotta say I love every one of these guys for a hit today.

Our keep it simple methodology sets a nice low bar to clear in a really difficult hitter market. Players only get a small handful of at-bats every game, where a couple of walks and a HBP could otherwise ruin your day.

Honorable mention for the A's Tyler Soderstrom — but the combination of facing Drew Rasmussen and his sub-.200 xBA created too large a hurdle for me. I'll bring the xBA limit as low as .250 if we can project +4.5 plate appearances, but .191 is entirely too low.

📝 TODAY'S ACTION: TWO-LEGBASE HIT PARLAY (+135) on Fanduel

1. Tommy Pham, PIT
2. Jonathan India, KC

👎🏼 Hit parlay finally fell flat Saturday but boy, is this method encouraging or what? 👎🏼

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 30, 2025, where it first appeared.