First Things First! MLB Probable Starters + Underdog Winners

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Jul 3, 2025 - 14:30

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First Things First! MLB Probable Starters + Underdog Winners originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

"Give me six hours to chop down a tree, I'll spend the first four sharpening the axe."

Part of the struggle betting baseball daily comes down to handling the massive amount of data attached to each slate, beginning with the day's probables. Injuries, openers or shuffling can throw your work in a blender before it begins.

Make sure to bookmark our Athlon Sports Betting tab to help solidify that foundation bright and early every day.

Wednesday July 2nd, 2025

12:10pm EST — O/U 7.5

MIN David Festa: -119; 54.3% Implied Probability

MIA Eury Perez: +100; 50.0% Implied Probability

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3:10pm EST — O/U 11.5

HOU Brandon Walter: -180; 64.3% Implied Probability

COL Kyle Freeland: +155; 39.2% Implied Probability

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6:45pm EST — O/U 9.5

DET Dietrich Enns: -161; 61.7% Implied Probability

WSH Jake Irvin: +137; 42.2% Implied Probability

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7:07pm EST — O/U 8.5

NYY Clarke Schmidt: -130; 56.5% Implied Probability

TOR Chris Bassitt: +110; 47.6% Implied Probability

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7:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

MIL Jose Quintana: +128; 43.9% Implied Probability

NYM David Peterson: -157; 61.1% Implied Probability

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7:15pm EST — O/U 9.5

LAA Jose Soriano: +118; 45.9% Implied Probability

ATL Bryce Elder: -144; 59.0% Implied Probability

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8:05pm EST — O/U 8.5

CLE Luis L. Ortiz: +128; 43.9% Implied Probability

CHC Cade Horton: -157; 61.1% Implied Probability

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9:40pm EST — O/U 8.5

SF Robbie Ray: -120; 54.5% Implied Probability

ARI Brandon Pfaadt: +103; 49.3% Implied Probability

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10:10pm EST — O/U 8.5

CHW Sean Burke: +210; 32.3% Implied Probability

LAD Dustin May: -256; 71.9% Implied Probability

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10:10pm EST — O/U 7.5

KC Seth Lugo: +134; 42.7% Implied Probability

SEA Bryan Woo: -159; 61.4% Implied Probability

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

Wednesday's dogs go 2-2 for yet another day in the black — Remember just a 50% hit rate at plus money equals profit!

My first read usually comes down to one thing: underdogs at plus odds with at least a 50/50 chance to win outright — Today's are MIA, TOR, and CLE. Remember, baseball's inherently variant and backing dogs greatly lowers the necessary win/loss record to profit long-term. These dogs continue to perform so well since we started, way better than expected.

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

Thanks so much for reading — If you're interested in upping your analytical game, come check out my best-selling MLB/NFL Betting & Fantasy Data Substack page.

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 3, 2025, where it first appeared.