Going The Distance — Out Prop Parlay

Going The Distance — Out Prop Parlay originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

Newsflash... betting baseball's hard. So, rather than attacking extremely sharp general markets, it's no surprise many sharp bettors moved their action into player props.

Out props continue to gain prevalence — so Athlon's got another simple-to-use, hard-to-find data set that will surely save you time researching. I scrape every probable starter's outs recorded per game, plus pitches per plate appearance (P/PA), and compare them to the opposing team's aggression rank by Swing Rate.

PITCHER EFFICIENCY: League average pitches per plate appearance: 3.88

• PHI Ranger Suarez — 72.0 IP; 19.6 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. CIN 45.3% Swing Rk 29
• HOU Framber Valdez — 109.0 IP; 19.2 Out/G 3.6 P/PA vs. LAD 46.4% Swing Rk 25
• SF Logan Webb — 113.2 IP; 18.9 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. ATH 47.7% Swing Rk 11
• BAL Dean Kremer — 97.0 IP; 18.2 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. ATL 47.6% Swing Rk 13
• NYY Carlos Rodon — 106.2 IP; 17.7 Out/G 4.1 P/PA vs. NYM 46.8% Swing Rk 21
• ATH Luis Severino — 104.1 IP; 17.4 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. SF 46.0% Swing Rk 28
• STL Matthew Liberatore — 92 IP; 17.3 Out/G 3.6 P/PA vs. CHC 47.6% Swing Rk 14
• KC Michael Wacha — 97.0 IP; 17.1 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. ARI 46.5% Swing Rk 23
• SD Stephen Kolek — 62.2 IP; 17.0 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. TEX 49.3% Swing Rk 2
• SEA Luis Castillo — 96.1 IP; 17.0 Out/G 4.0 P/PA vs. PIT 46.4% Swing Rk 26
• DET Casey Mize — 78.2 IP; 16.8 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. CLE 48.4% Swing Rk 4
• CIN Nick Lodolo — 94.2 IP; 16.6 Out/G 3.9 P/PA vs. PHI 47.7% Swing Rk 12
• TEX Patrick Corbin — 82.1 IP; 16.4 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. SD 47.1% Swing Rk 18
• TB Taj Bradley — 92.0 IP; 16.2 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. MIN 47.0% Swing Rk 19
• WSH Mitchell Parker — 91.1 IP; 16.1 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. BOS 49.0% Swing Rk 3
• MIL Chad Patrick — 89.2 IP; 15.7 Out/G 4.0 P/PA vs. MIA 48.0% Swing Rk 9
• CLE Logan Allen — 78.0 IP; 15.6 Out/G 4.0 P/PA vs. DET 47.9% Swing Rk 10
• ARI Ryne Nelson — 67.1 IP; 15.4 Out/G 3.9 P/PA vs. KC 48.4% Swing Rk 6
• LAA Jack Kochanowicz — 86.0 IP; 15.2 Out/G 3.7 P/PA vs. TOR 47.6% Swing Rk 15
• COL German Marquez — 83.1 IP; 14.7 Out/G 3.5 P/PA vs. CHW 47.2% Swing Rk 17
• PIT Mike Burrows — 34.2 IP; 14.7 Out/G 3.8 P/PA vs. SEA 47.3% Swing Rk 16
• CHW Jonathan Cannon — 53.0 IP; 14.5 Out/G 4.0 P/PA vs. COL 50.0% Swing Rk 1
• BOS Walker Buehler — 67.0 IP; 14.4 Out/G 3.9 P/PA vs. WSH 46.9% Swing Rk 20
• MIA Cal Quantrill — 73.0 IP; 13.7 Out/G 4.1 P/PA vs. MIL 45.2% Swing Rk 30
• NYM Frankie Montas — 9.0 IP; 13.5 Out/G 4.2 P/PA vs. NYY 46.2% Swing Rk 27
• TOR Max Scherzer — 13.0 IP; 13.0 Out/G 3.9 P/PA vs. LAA 46.6% Swing Rk 22

Unlike walks and strikeouts, only standard two-way markets exist for pitcher outs. Therefore, pricing's especially important — as well as setting parameters around popular hook points (like avoiding a costly O18.5 or u14.5).For overs, look to target the most efficient pitchers with the lowest pitches/PA against offenses ranking highest in swing rate.

Conversely, teams that take a lot pitches make great spots for unders — especially anywhere with field temperatures north of 100 degrees (I mention that last part because it cost us a Sonny Gray prop already).

LAGHEZZA'S LEANS:

This prop market's consistently juiced to the over, it's so annoying — I'm finding myself increasingly leaning toward unders. 

Frankie Montas hasn't seen the sixth inning yet this year and will need to break the seal against the crosstown Yanks. Tall task. Then Logan Webb needs to finish 7 IP in a AAA park with perfect hot hitting conditions in Sacramento. He could spin a gem and still not get there.

.📝 Today's Action -- TWO-LEG UNDER OUTS RECORDED (+200) PARLAY

• Frankie Montas, NYM u15.5 + Logan Webb, SF u20.5 Outs

(If you read this too late for the 4:05pm EST start, I'd easily swap in Luis Castillo, SEA under 18.5 outs)

BET SMALL, BET SMART, BET RESPONSIBLY

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This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 5, 2025, where it first appeared.