Tuesday briefing: How weakened is Iran after Operation Midnight Hammer – and where might it go from here?

In today’s newsletter: With its nuclear capabilities down but not out and domestic support strong, the question is where Iran goes next

Good morning. The term “cakeism” – the false belief that one can simultaneously enjoy the benefits of two mutually exclusive choices – may forever be associated with the Brexit negotiations, when keeping the advantages of EU membership while also shedding its costs became the UK’s official bargaining position.

But the appeal of cakeism endures, and over the last week the US president’s approach to the conflict with Iran has started to look distinctly gateau-shaped. Donald Trump wants the glory of a decisive victory on the battlefield but is not so keen on the long-term repercussions that come with it: tit-for-tat retaliations, unforeseeable conflict spillage, focused diplomacy, or even regime change – the kind of talk the Maga movement associates with Trump’s predecessors.

Welfare | Downing Street’s plans to see off a major Labour welfare rebellion were in chaos on Monday night, amid continued brinkmanship between MPs and the government over the scale of the concessions. There was significant division between government departments over how to respond to rebels’ demands ahead of the knife-edge vote on Tuesday.

UK news | Police have formally opened a criminal investigation into comments made by Bob Vylan and Kneecap at Glastonbury after reviewing video and audio footage of the performances. Meanwhile on Monday, the BBC said that it should not have allowed chants of “Death to the IDF” at Bob Vylan’s performance to be broadcast.

Crown Estate | King Charles is set to receive official annual income of £132m next year, after his portfolio of land and property made more than £1bn in profits thanks to a boom in the offshore wind sector.

Arms trade | Britain’s decision to allow the export of F-35 fighter jet components to Israel, despite accepting they could be used in breach of international humanitarian law in Gaza, was lawful, London’s high court has ruled. The judges ruled that the “acutely sensitive and political issue” was “a matter for the executive … not for the courts”.

Crime | A 92-year-old man who evaded justice for almost 60 years has been convicted of raping and murdering a woman in Bristol, after a review by a cold case police team and scientists. Officers believe the 58-year gap between the crime and the conviction may be the biggest in modern English policing history. Continue reading...