ACC Preview #2 – NC State

• ACC Preview #1 – UNC

If UNC’s team is tough to get a grip on with all the changes, what about NC State? It’s not much easier, because it’s had a ton of change, too.

Everyone in Raleigh was shocked – shocked! when Will Wade checked out after a year, but maybe they shouldn’t have been, because for most of his public life, he hasn’t exactly been besties with the truth.

Wade did quite well as a young coach, before moving to LSU, where he got involved in the Adidas/FBI case. Rather notoriously, he was wiretapped saying that he made a “strong-ass offer” to recruit Javonte Smart. This ultimately cost him his job at LSU, and another casualty was his AD, Joe Alleva, formerly at Duke.

After his two-year rehab tour at McNeese, NC State fans essentially drafted him to come to Raleigh. Basically, the fans settled on him, overlooked his cheating and his hit-or-miss relationship with the truth, and said hey, Boo Corrigan! Hire that guy.

The precedent for this was when Louisville fans pressured their AD to hire Kenny Payne, and we all know how that worked out.

Wade, who never really had to work for the job, came in making promises like Harold Hill of the Music Man. NCAA tournament, guaranteed. He knew how to use Ven-Allen Lubin when UNC’s Hubert Davis didn’t. And worst of all, next year was going to be better.

He made that whopper when State was struggling and the tournament was an iffy proposition.

The Wolfpack did make the First Four, losing to Texas, but that wasn’t really what he promised, not exactly. Neither was 20-14.

The turning point though might have been when NC State got hammered by Duke, 93-64 in early March. After the game, Wade said one of the few indisputably honest things he said while in Raleigh: “We know where the standard is now. Our eyes are wide open to that and what to chase. Duke’s whole operation was incredible. To see it in person was unparalleled to anything I’ve seen as a coach.”

One possible translation: I ain’t chasing these guys, much less catching them, and LSU is whispering sweet nothings about coming back. And Kentucky isn’t what it was before. So….

State fans were in high dudgeon for a few days, and Corrigan, for some reason, clearly thought he was dealing with an honest man.

So as you probably know, Wade is back in Baton Rouge and the Situational Ethics Conference, where he continues to test the rules, now by trying to bring professional athletes to LSU.

After his one year romance with the Wild Side, Corrigan made a much smarter hire this time around.

Justin Gainey played for the Wuffies from 1996-2000, where he played for risk-averse Herb Sendek. Ultimately, the NC State fan base turned on Sendek and he left for Arizona State. He never commented on why he left, but there was some bitterness.

No one ever questioned Gainey’s point guard chops, and he went on to a solid career as an assistant. He started locally, first at Elon, then moving up to Boone and Appalachian State. He spent a year with Sendek at Santa Clara, then moved to Arizona, where he worked for Sean Miller. After that was a stint at Marquette, and then moved to Knoxville, where he worked for Rick Barnes.

At Arizona, he walked into the widespread tentacles of the Adidas/FBI scandal, where we think he replaced Book Turner, who ultimately went to prison.

At Marquette, he helped Shaka Smart get his program started, but his reputation grew immensely at Tennessee.

Rick Barnes wore out his welcome at Texas, where he made the Final Four in 2003, but didn’t get past the first weekend for his last seven years (and one of those years, Texas was in the CBI).

In Knoxville, Barnes underachieved in the post-season from 2016-2022. Maybe it’s a coincidence, but after Gainey was hired, the Vols made one Sweet 16 and three straight Elite Eights.

That certainly adds a lot of credibility to the Gainey hire.

So does this: Barnes turned his defense over to Gainey in 2022-23, and Tennessee led the nation in KenPom adjusted defensive efficiency.

Under Barnes, Gainey helped build a defense that relies on heavy ball pressure and side help. Tennessee tries to shut down the middle drive, forcing the ball towards help defenders. The Vols also switch very well, put tons of pressure on three-point shooters, and has a proprietary analytics system that measures each player’s accountability.

You can reasonably expect that to be the basis of Gainey’s NC State system.

The offense? That’s a very different question.

He could just import everything Barnes did, but he also learned from Sean Miller and Shaka Smart, who both preferred up-beat offenses.

Just as long as he avoids Sendek’s Princeton-0ffense influenced system, State fans will be alright.

This year, we will probably get an excellent insight into his defensive scheme, but offense may take a year or two longer for him to fully implement. We have no idea what his transfers and freshmen will bring, but he took the job kind of late and that limited his roster building somewhat.

So let’s start with a look at who’s on the roster.

Returnees

• Paul McNeil – 6-6/190/JR
• Zymicah Wilkins – 6-9/260/R-FR

Portal

• Darius Adams – 6-5/190/SO (Maryland)
• RJ Keene – 6-7/200/GR (Boise State)
• Christian Hammond – 6-4/195/R-JR (Santa Clara)
• Preston Edmead – 6-1/170/SO (Hofstra)
• Kyle Evans – 6-10/210/GR (UC Irvine)
• Eemeli Yalaho – 6-8/190/SR (Washington State)
• Jacari Brim – 6-2/190/SO (Appalachian State)
• Comeh Emuobor – 6-5/205/SR (New Hampshire)
• Shah Hall – 6-11/240/R-JR (JUCO)

Freshmen

• Kingston Whitty – 6-2/4 star
• Robert Jerkovich 6-9/no stars

State should build on a solid backcourt. McNeil had some lows last season, but also some incredible highs, notably 47 points against Texas Southern. But he also had 27 against UNCG, 20 against Texas, 19 against Ole Miss, 21 against Florida State, and 28 against Wake Forest.

However, he also scored 0 against VCU and Louisville, and when Kansas visited, he had just 4 points in a 77-76 overtime loss.

Clearly, he’s talented, but he hasn’t been consistent yet. Keep in mind that Gainey is his third coach in three years, though.

We’ve heard that Edmead is a better point guard than you might expect. If that’s true, then the Pack has a pretty good starting backcourt.

Hammond played for Sendek in his Beach Era at Santa Clara, averaging 16 points. He shot 40% from 3, and he played his first two seasons for Herb Sendek at Santa Clara

Adams will likely be a backup, at least at first. As a Terp, Adams averaged averaged 10.8 points, 3.4 boards, and 1.6 assists. He shot 35.4% from the field and 24.8% from 3-point range, which isn’t great.

Gainey may go with RJ Keene at forward, despite his almost total lack of offensive performance. Why?

Because he’s a superb defender. Since McNeil is 6-6, he could also play at forward. Too bad they can’t merge those guys.

Yalaho could go at the other forward. He averaged 10 points, 6 rebounds, and 1.7 assists at Washington State, and he hits 40% on his threes.

Evans is a good defender, so he might get the nod at center.

Beyond that? It’s really hard to say. Maybe Wilkins took a big leap during his redshirt year. Maybe Hall is a nightmare for opponents. Maybe freshmen Whitty or Jerkovich exceeds expectations (actually, there are some rumors that Jerkovich might be good enough to start).

The basic reality of Gainey’s first year is this: he’s going to go all-in on defense to win. That might mean ugly basketball for a while, but if State wins, who cares?

And this team is likely to jack up a lot of threes, which will speed up the game. So we’d say keep an eye on State as a possible surprise team in the ACC this year.

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