Bold Predictions: Ohio State will have its best passing season since 2018

As preseason camp begins this week, Land-Grant Holy Land is diving into its final theme every week of the off-season. This week is all about making predictions that may or may not be reasonable, in fact, some might say they are bold. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”Bold Predictions” articles here.

Ohio State’s passing offense wasn’t ‘bad’ by any stretch of the imagination during the 2025 season, but it’s safe to say that it underperformed relative to expectations.

As a team, the Buckeyes threw for 3,755 yards and 33 touchdowns last year, with 3,610 yards and 32 of those touchdowns being provided by starting quarterback Julian Sayin. On paper, it was an impressive year for the first-time starter, as the former five-star prospect led the Big Ten with a 77% completion percentage while throwing only eight interceptions, finishing fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting.

That being said, Sayin did not perform at his best when the lights were the brightest.

To be fair, a lot of that came down to an incredibly poor showing by the offensive line. Sayin was sacked five teams each in Ohio State’s final two games against Indiana in the Big Ten Championship Game and against Miami in the College Football Playoff Quarterfinal — both losses.

Some of that certainly falls on the quarterback’s awareness and escapability, but Sayin was not exactly set up to succeed. Add on top of that having two of the nation’s very best wide receivers at his disposal, and you would’ve liked to see a bit more from Sayin in those two marquee matchups.

It also did not help matters that Ohio State was juggling the loss of offensive coordinator Brian Hartline as the postseason began, forcing play calling duties into the hands of some combination of Ryan Day, Keenan Bailey and Tyler Bowen. The Buckeyes’ offense looked completely disjointed in those two games specifically, and the coaching changes seemed to play a large part in that disfunction.

All that is to say: Things could have — and should have — ended better than they did, and Ohio State’s passing offense should have been a lot more prolific than it was throughout the season.

I think it will be much improved in 2026. So much so, that I’m willing to make the bold prediction that Ohio State will have its best passing season since 2018.

Most of the key pieces from that offense are returning. Sayin is back with a full year of being the Buckeyes’ starting quarterback under his belt. Jeremiah Smith is back for year three as the best wide receiver in the country and the best overall player in college football. The offensive line, which has had its struggles, will be a veteran group that lost its weakest link to the transfer portal and will likely contain five guys with starting experience.

The obvious omission here, and a massive loss for this Ohio State offense, is the absence of Carnell Tate, who was selected with the No. 4 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft by the Tennessee Titans.

Even with Hartline no longer in the building, the Buckeyes have done an excellent job to maintain the highest standard set in this wide receiver room, and while they can’t directly replace Tate’s value one-for-one, there are no shortage of options to help fill that gap in the aggregate.

Ohio State was able to retain five-star wide receiver Chris Henry Jr. in the 2026 recruiting class, and the 6-foot-5 freshman will play an immediate role in Columbus. Top-50 overall player Jerquaden Guilford is another big addition in that class who could play right away, and joining them are veteran transfers Kyle Parker (LSU) and Devin McCuin (UTSA).

Another wildcard here is Brandon Inniss, who severely underperformed last season. Ohio State got next to nothing from its WR3 in 2025, with Inniss totaling just 271 yards. If Inniss can take that next step… great! If not, assuming Smith and Henry Jr. are your WR1 and WR2, then Guilford, Parker or even another fast rising freshman in Brock Boyd give you a more complete unit.

The top end talent is lower without Tate, but I think there’s a real chance that the wide receiver rotation as a whole is even better than last year’s with a further developed Smith, a second physical freak in Henry Jr. and a WR3 that actually provides value, whether that be a better version of Inniss or a different guy entirely.

In addition, Ohio State’s rushing attack remains a massive question mark.

We expect big things from Bo Jackson, who will be heading into year two after an incredibly impressive freshman campaign that saw him rush for more than 1,000 yards despite not even earning the starting job until midway through the season. Isaiah West showed flashes in limited reps as well, and those two guys are expected to be your top two in the pecking order.

However, both players missed time this spring with injuries, in addition to freshmen Legend Bey and Turbo Rogers. The only healthy running backs to suit up for the Spring Game were freshmen Stanley Jackson Jr. and Favour Akih, neither of which figure to factor into the rotation this season, and veteran transfer addition Ja’Kobi Jackson, who played only four games at Florida in 2025.

Needless to say, the running back room is thin, and barring a breakout season from a guy like Bey, a ton will be on the shoulders of Bo Jackson and Isaiah West. Those two could be more than up to the task, especially with an improved offensive line in front of them, but I’d expect Ohio State to lean a little heavier on the passing attack when times get tough.

To me, all of these factors add up to a season with passing totals the Buckeyes haven’t seen since 2018.

Now, hopefully it won’t be as drastic as that 2018 season, where Dwayne Haskins set the Big Ten single season passing record with 4,831 yards and a whopping 50 passing touchdowns, as Ohio State couldn’t run the ball even a little bit that season.

The Buckeyes’ 4.2 yards per carry that year is tied with 2023 for their worst mark of the last 12 years, and one of only three times since 2014 (2023 and 2025) that they’ve rushed for fewer than five yards per carry in a single season as a team.

While injuries could quickly derail the run game, I still expect Ohio State to run the ball more effectively in 2026.

Still, the passing attack is going to be heavily featured in this offense, and with the potential for more games on the schedule with an expanded College Football Playoff, Ohio State could eclipse the 5,000-yard passing mark for only the second time in the last dozen seasons.

Should the Buckeyes play 16 games this year, as they did in 2024, that would amount to 312.5 passing yards per game. Ohio State has blown past that mark twice in the last eight years, with 364.3 yards per game in 2018 and 380.9 yards per game in 2021. It is only an additional 44.3 yards per game than they managed last season as well.

On top of a longer schedule, Ohio State will also play more games this season against quality opponents, meaning their starters will stay in the game longer and they will continue passing the ball into the fourth quarter rather than running out the clock in the second half of blowouts.

The Buckeyes won by an average of 29.25 points during the regular season in 2025, rarely having to throw a pass in the fourth quarter — and sometimes well before then. The 2026 schedule features games against Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan, meaning far more hotly contested matchups and more pass attempts with your starters in the game.

All of these factors lead me to believe Ohio State is well-positioned for a big passing season. A more experienced quarterback, the existence of a year three Jeremiah Smith combined with some flashy new toys around him and a potentially shaky run game plus a lengthy schedule that will demand more from it’s starters is the perfect storm for a historic statistical campaign.

Sayin likely won’t break Haskins’ Big Ten record of 4,831 passing yards, but I boldly predict the Buckeyes will have their best passing season since that 2018 campaign and eclipse the 5,000-yard mark as a team for the first time in eight years.