British Open 2026 punch shot: Who lifts Claret Jug at Royal Birkdale? Who leaves most disappointed?

Royal Birkdale is firm, fast and fiery as it readies to test the world's best players.

Who has the best chance to pass this 154th Open Championship test?

Our GolfChannel.com writers answer that question and more:

Who lifts the claret jug on Sunday?

RYAN LAVNER: Matt Fitzpatrick. Checks all of the boxes for a player who is in the best form of his career. In a groove off the tee. Massively improved iron player. Elite scrambler. Top form, after near misses over the past month at the Travelers and last week’s Scottish. And, at Birkdale, a major pedigree: All but one of the past champs here already had a major on their CV, which Fitz can claim.

REX HOGGARD: Scottie Scheffler. Based on the world No. 1’s perceived issues this season this might seem like a Hail Mary pick, but that narrative ignores one very important fact — he’s still really good at golf. Despite that missed cut last week in Scotland, Scheffler has a victory, four runner-up finishes and 14 top-25 showings this year. He’s also the defending Champion Golfer of the Year and has never finished worse than 23rd at the game’s oldest championship.

BRENTLEY ROMINE: Scottie Scheffler. He's back to being the best ball-striker on the planet, and after a slew of runner-up finishes without getting it over the line in big events this year, this is the week that it all comes together again.

Who leaves the most disappointed?

LAVNER: Ludvig Åberg. The easy answer here is Bryson DeChambeau, who has top-tenned in two recent Opens that were played in softer, more gettable conditions; his work-in-progress wedge game threatens to get exposed again. But it could be another frustrating week for Åberg, the immensely talented Swede who is still looking for his first breakthrough in a big one. While traveling to Scotland last week he broke his driver and launch monitor, leading to his first missed cut since January, and his leaky ball-striking over the past month-plus doesn’t portend well for what figures to be an examination of approach-play precision.

HOGGARD: Bryson DeChambeau. The game’s most compelling figure has a hit-and-miss relationship with The Open, with three missed cuts in eight starts and just two top-10 showings. He’s also 0-for-3 this year in Grand Slam starts. A 0-for-4 major season feels inevitable.

ROMINE: Cameron Young. Have already taken a ton of heat for this, but I'll double down. It's been a couple months since Young has contended in a golf tournament. He's barely a top-40 player tee to green over the past month or so. He's not finished top 30 in an Open in three years. The only positive seems to be that his arm isn't taped up like it was at Shinnecock, where he, checks notes, was T-43.

The Open 2026: Ranking all 156 players in field at Royal Birkdale

As The Open heads to a new-look Royal Birkdale this week, it’s time to rank Scottie Scheffler and the rest of the field for the year’s final major.

• Brentley Romine,

• Brentley Romine,

Who will be a surprise contender?

LAVNER: Tyrrell Hatton. He’s in the best two-year run of majors in his career, and his iron play has gotten even better over the past few months after making a tweak to keep his head further back in his backswing. Always comfortable while back home in the UK, he seems primed to join Aaron Rai this year as first-time English major winners.

HOGGARD: Chris Gotterup. We’re not sure how much of a surprise the world No. 6 would be, but he certainly seems to be flying under the radar despite the fact he’s one of just two players who have won at least three times on the PGA Tour this season and he posted his best major finish at last year’s Open Championship.

ROMINE: Alex Fitzpatrick and Eugenio Chacarra. Both Wake Forest products will outplay their fellow Deac Young this week. Both strike the ball at an elite level, especially off the tee, and won't have any trouble with these firm surfaces. With Chacarra, the question is always the short game, but I'd definitely throw a few quid on both of these guys each way.

What’s the winning score?

LAVNER: 12 under. Birkdale might not be the most visually dramatic links, but it boasts a fun variety of holes, with an interesting quirk that the first par 5 isn’t until the 14th hole. (That closing five-hole stretch, however, has a pair of par 5s and a short par 4 sprinkled amid two beefy holes.) With the course continuing to bake under the summer sun, rendering the fescue even less of a threat to scoring, there could be a surge of players who simply reach for driver to bypass the trouble and turn this into a wedge-fest.

HOGGARD: 11 under. The winners of the last four Open Championships at Royal Birkdale have finished 12 under (2017), 3 under (2008), even (1998) and 8 under (1991) and this week’s firm and fast conditions suggest something closer to the ’08 and ’98 totals. But these are still the game’s best players and the forecast calls for relatively benign conditions.

ROMINE: 10 under. Birkdale isn't just significantly firmer than when it yielded a 12-under winning score in 2017, but big changes to the course, especially the addition of the lengthy par-3 15th, have made this place a touch or two tougher. Remember, nine years ago only three players finished better than 5 under for the week.

The Open 2026: Tee times, groupings, how to watch Round 1

Here’s a look at tee times and groupings for the opening round of the 154th Open Championship.

• Golf Channel Staff,

• Golf Channel Staff,