ESPN FPI odds for MSU to reach College Football Playoff in 2026

What are the chances Michigan State will surprise the college football world and reach the playoff? According to one predictive metric, it's almost impossible to happen.

Michigan State is in the midst of a rebuild, with a more realistic goal of reaching a bowl game for the first time in five seasons as the true expectation this fall. But for those who would like to venture further and see how likely it is that Michigan State could reach possibly 10 wins and be in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff, then ESPN's FPI has that likelihood outlined for you. It's very low.

According to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), Michigan State has a 0.8% chance of reaching the College Football Playoff this season. That's among the lowest in the Big Ten, ahead of only Purdue (0.6%) and tied with Rutgers and Minnesota.

The Spartans' have a wins over/under total of 4.5 at the moment at most sports books, so considering a run to the playoff is farfetched for sure. But if we did take a walk down that path, it would look something like this...

• Handle business in the games Michigan State is expected to win (Toledo, Eastern Michigan and Northwestern)
• Win each of the toss-up / flip games (Nebraska, at Wisconsin, Illinois, at UCLA and at Rutgers)
• Find a way to win at least two of the four games where Spartans are sizable underdogs (at Notre Dame, at Michigan, Washington and Oregon)

When you break it down like that, you can see why it's very unlikely for Michigan State to reach the College Football Playoff. But, hey, anything is possible I suppose...

Click on the post below to see the chances of reaching the College Football Playoff for each Big Ten team:

Big Ten football teams playoff chances in 2026 according to ESPN FPI pic.twitter.com/XIHdHgyXXb

— The Big Ten Huddle 🎙️ (@TheBigTenHuddle) July 26, 2026

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This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: ESPN FPI odds for MSU to reach College Football Playoff in 2026