Going first in a penalty shootout gives teams an advantage … or does it?

Jul 09, 2026 - 16:20

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Going first in a penalty shootout gives teams an advantage … or does it?

Thirteen of the past 15 shootouts at World Cups have been won by the team that went second

After watching 120 minutes of football, you might not find observing a coin toss the most exciting dessert. Fans in the stadium care, though. Win a coin toss for a penalty shootout and you choose the end where they are taken – to much rejoicing from those behind the chosen goal. Another coin toss also allows the winner to choose whether to go first or second. But does that decision actually matter?

For years, the consensus was that going first in a shootout gives teams an advantage. Being able to take the lead and put scoreboard pressure on opponents surely has a mental benefit, and means they are more likely to face the dreaded “must-score” penalty. However, when Rubén Vargas tucked away the winning spot kick for Switzerland against Colombia in their last-16 tie, it continued a rather curious trend.