Minnesota football projected for pedestrian finish in 2026 Big Ten predictions

Jul 08, 2026 - 22:10

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Minnesota football projected for pedestrian finish in 2026 Big Ten predictions originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

For the better part of a decade, P.J. Fleck has rowed the boat in Minneapolis with relentless optimism, building a gritty, competitive culture that consistently overachieves.

But in the ruthless landscape of the 18-team Big Ten, culture and grit can only compensate for so much. When the roster lacks elite depth, the margins eventually disappear.

According to the latest 2026 game picks and win-loss predictions from CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford, Minnesota is projected to finish with a pedestrian 6-6 overall record and a 4-5 mark in conference play, backing into a lower-tier bowl game.

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The Golden Gophers are projected to take care of business when favored, securing non-conference wins over Eastern Illinois and Akron. In conference play, Crawford expects Fleck’s squad to grind out tough victories over Purdue, UCLA, Iowa, and Northwestern.

However, these projected wins merely keep Minnesota treading water in a conference that severely punishes any sign of weakness.

The crux of Minnesota's projected stagnation lies in personnel. It's challenging to survive a nine-game Big Ten schedule without consistent quarterback play and robust depth in the trenches—two areas where the Gophers are currently severely lacking.

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"The Gophers have been competitive in recent years, but a step back in the win column signals roster turnover finally catching up with depth issues on both lines," Crawford wrote. This lack of depth is explicitly exposed in the model's projected losses.

Crawford predicts Minnesota will drop a non-conference tilt against Mississippi State and suffer grueling Big Ten defeats to Washington, Michigan, Indiana, Penn State and Wisconsin.

A .500 finish is a bitter pill to swallow for a program that has tasted 11-win success under Fleck, proving just how razor-thin the margin for error is in the new super-conference era.