NFL offseason power rankings: No. 15 Green Bay Packers tried to level up with Micah Parsons, and it didn't work

The Green Bay Packers are stuck in a weird rut.

They have a good, deep roster and have made the playoffs in six of the past seven seasons. For a few NFL franchises, that would be their best stretch in decades. But over the past four seasons the Packers have stalled. They haven't won more than 11 games in a season, made it past the divisional round or won a division title.

It's very hard to be critical of the Packers, who are having success at a rate better than all but a handful of teams. General manager Brian Gutekunst has done a remarkable job with roster building and while Packers fans are getting impatient with head coach Matt LaFleur, he has won 65.4% of his games.

Yet, it's fair to wonder if this group is ever going to be a true Super Bowl contender.

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The Packers seemed to understand that they needed to do something big to break through that ceiling when they traded for Micah Parsons last year. Parsons is one of the best players in football, and gave the Packers a true difference maker at a key position. Very early in the season Green Bay looked like the best team in football as it blew out the Lions and Commanders in Weeks 1 and 2.

But then the Packers practically leveled off after that, starting with a horrific loss to the Browns in Week 3. After those first two great performances they went 7-8-1, including a heartbreaking collapse and loss to the Chicago Bears in the playoffs that seemed like a microcosm of where the Packers stand. The Bears have all the buzz this offseason while the Packers seem to have shifted back to neutral.

Parsons' injury might have changed Green Bay's trajectory. Green Bay was 9-3-1 and led 23-21 at the Denver Broncos in Week 15 when Parsons tore his left ACL. The Packers wouldn't win again last season. Maybe without that injury (and another massive injury to tight end Tucker Kraft, who was having a great season when he tore his ACL) the Packers would have been a factor in the playoffs. Parsons' status hovers over this season as well. Parsons said he won't return until mid-October, via Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com. Presumably, Parsons will return and look like his normal dominant self at some point this season, but that's never guaranteed.

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It's getting harder to buy that the rest of the roster can be great, though it's unquestionably good. There were more personnel losses this offseason than there had been in years. Receiver Romeo Doubs, offensive linemen Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker, linebacker Quay Walker, and edge rusher Kingsley Enagbare left for big deals in free agency. So did quarterback Malik Willis, who proved to be a valuable backup.

All of those players other than Walker got at least $8 million per season. The Packers also traded edge rusher Rashan Gary and receiver Dontayvion Wicks. That's a lot to lose. Then running back Josh Jacobs was arrested on multiple domestic violence charges in May.

Very little since the first two weeks of last season have gone right for Green Bay. Two miserable losses to the Bears sum up the plight of the Packers. For years the NFL's oldest and fiercest rivalry had gone cold because Chicago couldn't keep up. Then, last season, the Bears had a wild comeback on a Saturday night in Week 16, turning a 16-6 deficit at the two-minute warning into a 22-16 overtime win.

The Bears had an even more memorable comeback win over the Packers in a wild-card playoff game, winning 31-27 in regulation after trailing 21-3 at halftime. If you were buying stock in Green Bay or Chicago for 2026 and the next few years to come, it has likely become the Bears with their head coach Ben Johnson taunting the Packers the whole time. That's distressing for the Packers, who haven't fully broken out in the Jordan Love era.

Any team that is capable of being in the 11-win range, as the Packers were in 2024 and could have been last season if Parsons didn't get hurt, should be able to make a deep playoff run. Maybe Green Bay can, with Love continuing to play good football and plenty of talent around him, and the defense playing well late in the season with a healthy Parsons. It's just getting harder to envision that playing out.

The Packers' championship window might be closed, even though it might have never really opened.

Offseason grade

The Packers signed defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, a good player even as he turns 33 years old, and cornerback Benjamin St-Juste to help perhaps the biggest weakness on the roster. Green Bay also traded for inside linebacker Zaire Franklin from the Colts. That doesn't make up for the losses.

Receiver Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, linebacker Quay Walker, offensive linemen Elgton Jenkins and Rasheed Walker, edge rushers Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare and quarterback Malik Willis were all valuable players and all of them are elsewhere this season. Even if the Packers' depth puts them in better position to absorb those losses than most teams, it's still a lot.

The draft wasn't impressive because the Packers didn't have a first-round pick due to the Micah Parsons trade. The Packers did fine despite having only two picks in the top 199, turning the top picks into second-round cornerback Brandon Cisse and third-round defensive tackle Chris McClellan. Overall, there were too many losses to get excited about the offseason.

Grade: D

Quarterback report

The Packers probably need to let Jordan Love cook. At least a little more. Love was under 30 passing attempts per game, as the Packers ranked 24th in pass rate above expectation (PROE). That's odd considering Love was second in the NFL behind Drake Maye in EPA (expected points added) per dropback and third in Pro Football Focus' passing grades. Love was an extremely efficient quarterback last season who had fewer attempts than Geno Smith. That seems like a philosophical flaw.

The Packers had to worry about running back Josh Jacobs' legal issues as well as a glaring lack of depth behind him over the spring. Perhaps the Packers will be pushed into throwing the ball more. Considering how good Love was last season, that might not be a bad thing.

BetMGM odds breakdown

From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "Micah Parsons' knee injury will loom over at least the start of this season, as Green Bay's defense (21st overall by DVOA) will need to be better. The Packers are favored in their first six games (and seven of their first eight), and 13 games overall, so they should be able to withstand it if Parsons misses some time.

"The roster is roughly the same as last season, so Green Bay will need more from Matthew Golden and Christian Watson at wide receiver as well. Josh Jacobs' legal situation following an arrest for domestic abuse allegations also hangs in the air. Jordan Love (72.7 QBR, third best) had a great regular season, but has now come up short in the postseason two straight years. Is this the year Love breaks through in January?"

Yahoo's fantasy take

From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "I'm torn on tight end Tucker Kraft, who was a Yahoo Fantasy darling last summer and destroyed the league over eight games (32-489-6, 15.3 YPC). All the George Kittle comps were validated. But Kraft tore his ACL in Week 9, and it's prudent to expect a gradual liftoff this year. I understand the managers who will draft Kraft with an eye toward him hitting full stride later in the year, when the fantasy stakes are bigger, but I suspect it's possible Kraft's glittering stats from 2025 might push him into an overly-optimistic draft pocket this summer. I can't wait to draft Kraft proactively again, but it's going to be in 2027. Keeps initial expectations realistic."

Stat to remember

The Packers had a heavy rotation at receiver last season. Among their top five WRs, nobody played more than 78% of the Packers' offensive snaps or fewer than 47%. The leader in snap share, Romeo Doubs, signed with the Patriots in free agency. And Dontayvion Wicks was traded to Philadelphia. That should streamline the passing game, which also includes tight end Tucker Kraft coming off a torn right ACL. Kraft was in the middle of a huge season when he got hurt, and could be the top target in the passing game again if healthy.

Green Bay has three good options at receiver. Christian Watson is polishing his game. He was mostly a deep threat early in his career but was a more well-rounded receiver last season and he seems on the verge of a breakout. Jayden Reed is a good, solid receiver who might never be a star but averaged more than 800 yards through his first two seasons before injuries limited him last season.

And Matthew Golden is a 2025 first-round draft pick who could benefit most from Doubs and Wicks being gone. Golden had a forgettable rookie season but his best game came in the playoffs with 84 yards and his first touchdown in the NFL.

Any of the Packers' top four targets in the passing game, including Kraft, could post their first 1,000-yard season if Green Bay leans more on the passing game.

Burning question: Can the Packers' defense get by until Micah Parsons returns?

You already knew this, but Parsons is a massive difference maker. The 2025 Packers can attest to that.

The Packers allowed 400 yards once in their first 14 games before Parsons' season ended, and that was in a tie against the Cowboys in which Dallas got five quarters to move the ball. The Packers allowed 400 yards three times in the four games after Parsons' injury. They had 33 sacks in 14 games with Parsons and then four in four games, including the playoff loss, without him.

Parsons' impact went beyond his 12.5 sacks. He affected everything on Green Bay's defense in a positive way.

The Packers need to survive without Parsons early in the season as he recovers. It would be great if Lukas Van Ness emerged, but the former first-round pick has just 8.5 sacks in 43 career games. Losing pass rushers Rashan Gary and Kingsley Enagbare isn't ideal. But if Parsons is back to his usual self when he returns, the Packers' defense will immediately get a lot better.

Best-case scenario

Maybe recency bias is working against the Packers. At the time of Micah Parsons' injury they had three losses, each by only three points. The season spiraled after Parsons tore his left ACL, but plenty of teams would struggle without their best player. Parsons might not be ready for the start of the season, but as long as the Packers can survive a month or so without him (the Packers get four non-playoff teams from last season to start the season: at Vikings, at Jets, vs. Falcons, at Buccaneers) then they could take off with Parsons back.

If Jordan Love has that long-awaited big season that he seems capable of, that could be what finally takes this Packers group from very good to great. The Packers have been the youngest team in the NFL the past couple years, and while that hasn't paid off big yet, maybe it's premature to believe we've seen the peak from them. If Love, who doesn't turn 28 years old until November, can become an MVP candidate then it shouldn't be too much of a stretch to get the Packers from being a perennial playoff team to a Super Bowl contender. That's why they got Parsons, after all.

Nightmare scenario

The floor of the Packers is pretty high. It's hard to see any scenario, outside of terrible luck with injuries, pushing them down to double digit losses. They're too deep for that. But that doesn't mean they're going to finish in the top two of a very tough NFC North. The Packers could be simply good again, and while that's not the worst outcome, it would also feel a bit deflating.

It's tough to know how to proceed if you're in the playoffs every season but clearly not capable of winning a championship. Would the Packers fire Matt LaFleur, who is winning nearly two-thirds of his games? Do they make major alterations to a roster that's capable of making the playoffs every season? It would put Green Bay in a weird spot.

The crystal ball says

This preview, and the Packers' ranking, is probably a little more pessimistic than Green Bay deserves. It's hard to win in the NFL and the Packers have done that consistently in the three seasons since all-time great Aaron Rodgers was traded to the Jets. They've done an excellent job drafting and developing, as well as accentuating the roster in free agency.

However, it's hard to predict a much different result from this group. The roster isn't as good as it was last season and Micah Parsons has health questions now. It seems fair to forecast more of the same: A good season with about 10 wins, a wild-card spot and a playoff exit far short of their championship dreams. And, if that happens again, it's hard to know what the Packers will or should do next.