UFC 329 predictions, odds for massive Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway card

Jul 10, 2026 - 10:25

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Oddsmakers are giving Conor McGregor about a 35 percent chance of beating Max Holloway in the main event at UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11. It’s hard to imagine anyone other than McGregor and his loyalists taking issue with that.

McGregor’s five-year layoff does not make victory impossible, but it is improbable. For those pulling for McGregor, what comes to mind is this: Sugar Ray Leonard’s three-year hiatus from boxing before he returned to the ring in 1987 to fight Marvin Hagler. Leonard pulled off a shocking upset.

But Leonard was 30. McGregor is 37.

McGregor also appears to have bulked up, which surely is the reason he’s fighting at 170 pounds. The leaner McGregor won titles as a featherweight and then as a lightweight.

He did fight as a welterweight in 2016 during his two bouts against Nate Diaz and in 2020 against Donald Cerrone. It’s worth noting he won the fight against Cerrone by first-round knockout. It’s unlikely he’ll be able to put away Holloway that early. And the deeper into the fight McGregor goes, the more that added muscle could fatigue him and make him vulnerable to Holloway’s striking power.

McGregor vs. Holloway: How to watch

Date: Saturday, July 11.
Time: 9 p.m. ET, main card starts. 7 p.m. ET, prelims start. 5 p.m., early prelims start.
Stream: Paramount+

Watch UFC 329 with Paramount+

McGregor vs. Holloway UFC 329 Predictions

Tom Aspinall (via MMA Junkie): “The thing is that power doesn't leave. (McGregor) needs one shot, and it could be over. … I think he's going to land the big left bomber on (Holloway).’’ Prediction: McGregor by KO, Round 1.

Trent Reinsmith, Forbes: Holloway, even a Holloway who is nearing the end of his career with a somewhat suspect chin and ability to absorb heavy blows, wins this fight more times than not. Prediction: Holloway by KO.

Matthew Petela, Combat Press: (McGregor) will miss big early, over and over, and wipe out his gas tank. That is when Holloway will take over and put together those extended combinations that have given him so many wins over his career.’’ Prediction: Holloway by stoppage, Round 3.