UFC Abu Dhabi Prime Picks: These men all have one thing in common

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UFC Fight Night 282 betting analysis featuring Magomed Ankalaev, Magomed Zaynukov and Valter Walker

We at Sherdog provide regular, in-depth preview coverage for all major events, including our oft-praised preview column along with our “Sheehan Show” handling all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where, stealing a line from game show host Sam Reich, we hold hands and jump into the abyss together for Saturday morning’s Ultimate Fighting Championship’s jaunt to Abu Dhabi. Try it out.

“Oops! All Magomeds” (-133)

Magomed Ankalaev (-575)
Magomed Zaynukov (-290)
Magomed Tuchalov (-900)

We admit, we’re getting away with a technicality here by not including Muhammad Said in our same-name parlay. After all, Magomed is the Russian transliteration of Muhammad. Also, good luck trying to search the name “Muhammad Said” without any additional qualifiers and still garner any information about the fighter of that namesake. All of these Magomeds are rightful favorites, and in the case of two of the more expected victors of Tuchalov and Ankalaev, moneyline bets are just not worth it.

Therefore, we pair these three gents together, all of whom have clear paths to victory against foes who have displayed exploitable weaknesses. Some are giving Bogdan Guskov a proverbial “puncher’s chance” to win this fight, although he might have some surprise jiu-jitsu in his back pocket. Nevertheless, unless Ankalaev chooses to take things horizontal—he is not nearly as keen on doing this despite his reputation, only doing so in his first triumphant meeting against Alex Pereira. Against “Poatan,” he did attempt a clean dozen shots. While he did not land a single one, the mere threat of the takedown allowed him to get in on the stoic striker and do some work. A few faked shots against “Hitman,” whose takedown defense has already come into question despite his recent successes, would pay immediate dividends.

We get to the meat of the order. More specifically, the pork. John Pork. “Wild Chanco” Zaynukov, who actually had his nickname on Fight Finder as “John Pork” until specifically reaching out to request that it be taken down. Robert Whittaker didn’t have the same problem when Ben Fowlkes and Chad Dundas first crowned him “Bobby Knuckles” in the always-great “Co-Main Event Podcast” and it stuck. Even though Damian Rzepecki will hold a slight bit more experience and more stoppages on his ledger, he and Zaynukov stand at different terraces in their respective careers.

To get signed through the promotion, the Dagestan native in the pipeline of the Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov School still had to work up through UAE Warriors to get a slot on Dana White's Contender Series last year. His strength of schedule? In his second pro bout, he crushed a 4-2 opponent. Not so much for Rzepecki, who cruised on Poland’s second- or third-most significant organization of Fight Exclusive Night and succeeded as well when stopping off Spanish-based World of Warriors FC for a bit of the ol' ultraviolence. Zaynukov may be shorter with a slightly lesser reach, but he already has shown that he can put a pace on an opponent and practically grind them to dust. See also: what he will likely do on Saturday morning.

How does the UFC handle this third Magomed, one making his promotional debut with a 100% finish rate? They throw him against one of the chinniest competitors on the light heavyweight roster with a win under his belt. In Brendson Ribeiro’s last three outings—all first-round stoppage losses—he has offered up just 21 significant strikes on his own end. On the way down, he succumbed to multiple takedowns, one of which leading to an eventual fight-ending rear-naked choke. Face-first drum solos performed by Azamat Murzakanov and Oumar Sy also demonstrated a strategy Tuchalov can certainly replicate. The line at -900 is quite pricey, so he is best suited as an attachment to a parlay like this one. If you are stone-cold certain, for example, that Valter Walker does bad things to Thomas Petersen? Why not increase that multiplier by a shade? On this Prime Picks prognostication, it’s Magomeds all the way down.

Valter Walker wins inside distance (+105)

To say that heel hook aficionado Walker is a “meme fighter” is not entirely the insult in which it was originally coined. He fights like he is playing a game, and his signature move seems to be a challenge for him to hit against anyone he faces now. Now that he is known for it, the veritable knuckleballer-but-in-MMA-terms seeks greater fame for landing this low-percentage, high-risk leglock. A move many accomplished fighters have stifled by simply punching. Punches to the noggin are an exceptional defense when both arms of the other athlete are wrapped around your leg.

We very seriously considered the play pitched by our own Sean Sheehan, who drilled even deeper to push for Walker by first-round sub at around +450. If you think a speedy heel hook is in the cards, by all means, get that steak dinner. We will err ever so slightly on the side of caution. Not only will we open up the window to allow for any stoppage from the Russian by way of Brazil, but we will also push the bounds of that finish coming any time before the final buzzer. This allows situations like Walker clubbing, trying a sub and then realizing he could just pound his way to a victory. Or, if Petersen’s credentials on the ground extend beyond offensive wrestling and grant him a modicum of survivability to reach the second stanza, it still hits. Beyond this play, discard your fear of missing out with our “FOMO five-dollar flier” on Sheehan’s timestamped call below, which may be worth contributing to if you wish to laugh and meme your way to the bank.