Cubs would've thrown a no-hitter — but Michael Conforto didn't catch this 99% probability out

Apr 05, 2026 - 23:46

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Cubs would've thrown a no-hitter — but Michael Conforto didn't catch this 99% probability out originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The Chicago Cubs nearly threw baseball's first no-hitter of the season.

Instead, Michael Conforto let a fly ball with a 99% catch probability drop, and that was the Cleveland Guardians' only hit of the entirety of game one of their Sunday doubleheader.

It's hard to know on flyballs whether wind or the sky impacts their catchability, but when the Statcast percentage is that high, the ball should probably be caught.

Here's how the play looked:

Cleveland's only hit vs. the Cubs today was on a ball that Michael Conforto misjudged

We remain in MLB's longest no-hitter drought since 2004-2006 pic.twitter.com/a3Xk45kkyI
— Talkin' Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) April 5, 2026

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Conforto made an adventure out of the moment out there.

This is what The WARmonger wrote on X: "Catch probability initially 99% on this one, BTW. It may update later but doubt it goes far. Tough way to lose a no-no."

Of course, there's no way to know with absolute certainty that the rest of the game would've played out the same way if Conforto had caught this ball.

Maybe the pressure of a potential no-hitter would've gotten to the Cubs and led to some different pitches down the stretch. This only happened in the sixth inning.

But in retrospect, at least as far as history is concerned, the moment looms large.

The Cubs won the game 1-0, so they won't rue that part of the mistake. It just denied them a no-hitter.