Karen Guregian: 5 bold predictions for the Patriots in 2026

Every year, I look into the crystal ball and try and make a few not-so-obvious predictions about the Patriots.

The bolder, the better.

Last year, I guessed one completely right (the 4-win Patriots would finish ahead of the Dolphins and Jets in the division). I had another that was half right (TreVeyon Henderson would rush for more than 400 yards - he rushed for 911 yards - and would catch 40 passes - he caught 35).

I was also pretty much on target predicting the Patriots would have a top 5 defense (4th in points allowed, 8th in total yards allowed).

But, I was also dead wrong about Joshua Farmer being an under-the-radar player who would make a significant impact, and that the Patriots would make a significant move to help the team before the trade deadline (they did nothing).

We’ll see if I can top that with 5 more bold predictions for 2026.

Repeat AFC East champs

Maybe it’s not so bold to have a team repeating as division champs.

On most scorecards, however, pundits have the Buffalo Bills reclaiming their AFC East title. And, for legitimate reasons.

First and foremost, the Patriots have a much tougher schedule. They’re also not catching anyone by surprise thanks to their Super Bowl appearance. They will have a bullseye on their backs. All of which are the primary reasons for having the Bills leap frog them.

I’m not buying it. Yes, the schedule is tougher. And, they won’t be sneaking up on everyone. They’ll be getting everyone’s best.

But the Patriots are a better team than last year. They might not win 14 games, but they’ll have double-digit wins.

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And, the Bills have their own issues after a coaching change and an unproven Joe Brady at the helm.

It’ll still be neck and neck down the wire, but my money is on the Patriots going back-to-back.

Drake Maye will throw more TD passes than last season

Maye’s 2025 season was remarkable on so many fronts. His completion percentage (72%), was other-wordly.

It would be beyond bold to predict he would better that mark. I’m going with touchdown passes instead. He had 31, which was third best behind Matthew Stafford (46) and Jared Goff (34).

He’ll beat that. And for good measure, he’ll also top his phenomenal passer rating (113.5) from last season, too.

That rating just missed Tom Brady’s 117.2 passer rating in 2007, which stands as the Patriots all-time mark.

With a better arsenal (hello, A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs), and better protection, he’ll be pushing 40.

The Patriots will have two 1,000-yard receivers

Stefon Diggs became the first Patriots 1,000-yard receiver since Julian Edelman accomplished the feat in 2019.

A.J. Brown will repeat the feat. So will Romeo Doubs.

It wouldn’t be much of a surprise with Brown, who has hit the 1,000-yard plateau in six of his seven NFL seasons.

Doubs?

He’s never done it. But in Josh McDaniels offense, with Drake Maye throwing the football, he’ll hit the milestone, too.

This D-lineman will make the biggest Year 2 leap

The choice here is bold because there are quite a few candidates who fit the bill.

Will Campbell, TreVeyon Henderson, Kyle Williams, Jared Wilson, Craig Woodson, Joshua Farmer, Bradyn Swinson, Marcus Bryant, Kobee Minor and kicker Andy Borregalas are in the mix from the 2025 draft class.

Elijah Ponder, Efton Chism III, Lan Larison, and C.J. Dippre, undrafted players signed by the Patriots last year, also qualify.

From that list, I’d narrow it down, with Henderson, Williams, Woodson, and Ponder the most likely.

Choosing one, I’d go with Ponder. Why?

Opportunity certainly knocks with some uncertainty at edge rusher given Harold Landry III having off-season surgery, and Gabe Jacas unsigned and also dealing with the fallout from an offseason procedure.

Playing a rotational role on the defensive line, Ponder had 24 total tackles and four sacks in 15 games as a rookie. He also had four tackles for a loss, two fumble recoveries, nine hurries and two quarterback hits.

Mike Vrabel and position coach Mike Smith raved about him during the spring. It’s hard not to jump on the bandwagon.

The Patriots will make another significant trade

Landing A.J. Brown would certainly qualify as significant.

And in most cases, it would probably be one and done on the trade front for many teams given the magnitude and assets surrendered to make the move.

But after doing such a good job bolstering areas of weakness, and further weaponizing Drake Maye, the Patriots will realize they need to go back to the well.

The most likely trade scenario has them acquiring a tight end. After Hunter Henry, the Patriots are incredibly thin at a position that’s vital to Josh McDaniels offense.

So I see them trading for an impact tight end, as opposed to standing firm with their in-house options for the No. 2 next to Henry.

Free agent addition Julian Hill was supposed to bridge the gap, but he’s already done for the year.

Standing pat is certainly an option given moves already made. They had the right idea by signing Hill and drafting Eli Raridon, but the rookie might not develop quick enough to satisfy the need this year.

That’s why they’ll make a trade. Why acquire Brown and sign Romeo Doubs, only to fall short at tight end?

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