LeBron James free agency rumors. LeBron James odds for next team

Jul 23, 2026 - 02:50

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Did the Miami Heat post a spoiler? Betting odds seem to think so.

The Heat posted a video to Youtube named "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference," but the organziation quickly took it down and said it was a mistake.

If betting odds are right, they probably should have just unpublished.

It still appears there are three teams in the running to sign James, the Heat, the Cavaliers, the Warriors and the 76ers. Here's where things stand on Wednesday.

Where will LeBron James sign?

Miami has a 48 percent of landing LeBron according to Kalshi on Wednesday night at 10:15 p.m., which is down 2 points from this afternoon. They’re followed by the Cavaliers, who have a 27 percent chance, two less than earlier. Golden State has a 15, up three from this afternoon and Philadelphia comes in with a 10 percent chance after seeing an eight percent chance earlier Wednesday.

The odds mean nothing, as they change all the time with no signing. But it's fun to keep tabs, especially if one of your teams is still in the running. The Heat are a huge favorite right now, but you have to wonder how much that youtube post meant.

When will LeBron James sign?

According to Kalshi, pretty soon.

It seems James will soon make his decision. According to Kalshi, there’s a 48 percent chance he signs before July 27. It goes up to 57 percent before July 28. And balloons to 65 percent by July 20.

It makes sense.

The NBA last week said it would like for James to make a decision because where he ends up will impact NBA TV schedules. It would be hard to imagine James’ team not having a Christmas Day game. Before they can schedule it, he needs to pick a team.

He still has three months before the start of the season, but everyone expects the decision to be made before the end of July.