Ranking the 10 best pitchers in MLB after 2026 All-Star Game

Don’t solely look at the ERA column, but focus on the advanced metrics that hide underneath. These are the ten best starters in MLB by what Statcast says they’re actually doing: expected ERA, strikeout-minus-walk rate, barrels allowed. The interesting group is the one whose ERA hasn’t paid up yet. For example, Skenes, Fried, and Luzardo are all pitching better than their run column shows, which is the closest thing to a buy-low on a list this good. And one guy shows up here after already making our best-hitters list. Only one guy can do that.

MORE: MLB Power Rankings after the 2026 All-Star break

10. Kyle Harrison, MIL

A 3.16 xERA and a 3.01 ERA highlight Kyle Harrison’s season so far. His 23.8% K-BB% is the engine, with 6.5% barrels allowed, keeping the damage down over 17 starts. He’s pitching exactly as well as the line says. 

9. Jesús Luzardo, PHI

The 3.43 ERA undersells him by half a run. Jesús Luzardo’s 2.91 xERA on a 21.9% K-BB% and just 30.7% hard-hit contact allowed says the run prevention is owed, not earned away. In twenty starts and 115.1 innings, he has 143 punchouts. The second half should look a lot prettier for him.

8. Max Fried, NYY

The most interesting arm here. Max Fried’s 12.9% K-BB% is barely above the pool median, meaning he doesn’t miss many bats, but a 1.8% barrel rate is the lowest on this list by a mile. Nobody squares him up. A 3.21 ERA over a 2.63 xERA is money owed in the second half.

7. Tarik Skubal, DET

Tarik Skubal’s 27.1% K-BB% is the second-best on this list, combined with a 2.83 ERA, sitting 21 points under a 3.04 xERA. With ninety-eight strikeouts in 82.2 innings across 14 starts, there’s no gap to argue about and nothing to wait for. He has the stuff and the run prevention that put him in the top 10 pitchers in the league.

6. Paul Skenes, PIT

Paul Skenes’ 3.57 ERA is overinflated next to his 2.73 xERA. It’s an 84-point gap, which is the largest here, that’s built on a 24.1% K-BB% over a workhorse 20 starts and 108.1 innings. He’s been better than his ERA all year. He will for sure have a better second half of the season.

5. Bryce Miller, SEA

Only 10 starts, but the profile is loud. Bryce Miller’s 2.48 xERA, a 25.3% K-BB%, and 29.6% hard-hit contact allowed are the lowest on this board. His 2.27 ERA is right on top of it. It is a small sample, but he is elite everywhere, with no correction pending.

4. Zack Wheeler, PHI

A 2.13 ERA on a 2.65 xERA means Zack Wheeler’s been even better than an already-excellent profile. Through 15 starts for Philadelphia, he has ten wins, a 0.892 WHIP, and a 24.2% K-BB%. Still one of the five best arms in the league.

3. Shohei Ohtani, LAD

The best player in baseball. Shohei Ohtani is 7th on our best-hitters list and third here. A 2.71 xERA on a 20.3% K-BB% and 3.8% barrels allowed, with a 1.79 ERA running nearly a full run below even that. Fourteen starts. It’s absurd, and it’s real.

2. Dylan Cease, TOR

A 25.9% K-BB%, 148 strikeouts in 98.1 innings, and just 4.4% of contact barreled against him. Dylan Cease’s 2.56 ERA and 2.86 xERA are 30 points apart, basically dead even. There’s no luck in this one, good or bad. He’s simply been the second-best starter in baseball.

1. Jacob Misiorowski, MIL

Nobody’s close to Jacob Misiorowski. He has a 33.2% K-BB%, seven points clear of anyone here, a 2.07 xERA, and 3.2% barrels allowed across 18 starts and 111 innings. The 1.62 ERA is flattering even that, so expect some drift. He’ll still be the best pitcher in the league when it settles.

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