Ranking the top 10 worst hitters in MLB after the All-Star Game

Ignore the batting average column when it comes to MLB statistics. Some of these guys are hitting .280-plus, and they’re still here on this list. That is because this list sorts on xwOBA, which measures how hard and how squarely you hit the ball, not whether it found grass. That gap is the story: Ernie Clement is hitting .297 with a .275 xwOBA, a 51-point cushion that isn’t going to hold. One thing to keep in mind is that eight of these ten play center, short, or second. The worst hitter isn’t the worst player.

MORE: MLB Power Rankings after the 2026 All-Star break

10. Ceddanne Rafaela, BOS (CF)

Ceddane Rafaela’s .282 average and .336 wOBA look fine until you see the .285 xwOBA underneath. That’s a 51-point overpayment on only 5.0% of barrels. And here’s the thing: he was 4th on our best defenders list at +10.01 FRV. That’s how a bat this quiet keeps a job in the major leagues.

9. Jose Altuve, HOU (2B)

The name that makes you look twice. Jose Altuve’s .285 xwOBA over 313 plate appearances, with a .310 wOBA sitting 25 points above it, shows the results are already running ahead of the contact. That’s the whole claim, this half-season only.

8. Sal Frelick, MIL (RF)

No trickery in this one. Sal Frelick’s .281 xwOBA and .286 wOBA, five points apart, explain that the line and the contact agree completely. Just 2.0% of barrels on 27.8% hard-hit at an average exit velocity of 85.9 mph, and only four homers in 308 plate appearances. There’s nothing hiding, but there’s also nothing coming.

7. Brooks Lee, MIN (SS)

With fourteen homers and 51 RBIs, Brooks Lee looks to be having a productive season. However, it hasn’t been. Only a .277 xwOBA against a .324 wOBA is 47 points of borrowed production, built on 3.8% barrels. The counting stats are the mirage; the contact quality is the bill.

6. Ernie Clement, TOR (2B)

Ernie Clement’s .297 average is the prettiest number on this entire list and the least predictive. His .275 xwOBA on 2.4% barrels and 85.2 mph exit velocity says almost none of it is repeatable. That .326 wOBA is 51 points of pure overpayment. It is expected to come down in the second half.

5. Ezequiel Tovar, COL (SS)

Ezequiel Tovar’s .202 average and .255 wOBA that’s actually below his .273 xwOBA showcase that he’s been slightly unlucky on top of being unproductive. And he plays half his games in Colorado, where offense goes to thrive. Also, his twenty-five percent strikeouts say there’s no cushion here to lose.

4. Nasim Nuñez, WSH (2B)

Thirty-three steals and a .5% barrel rate. Nuñez topped our best-base stealers list at +3.697 steal run value, and the legs are the entire case. He only has a .271 xwOBA on 84.6 mph contact, which is one of the emptiest offensive profiles in baseball. Only one homer in 305 trips to the plate.

3. Andrés Giménez, TOR (SS)

A .232 average, a .265 xwOBA, and total agreement between the two highlight Andrés Giménez’s poor offensive production so far this season. With just 3.4% barrels and a 3.6% walk rate, there’s no on-base floor propping it up either. The glove at short is what’s keeping him on a major league roster.

2. Chandler Simpson, TB (LF)

Zero barrels. Not a low rate, but exactly zero in 351 plate appearances for Chandler Simpson, on 14.3% hard-hit contact at 84.1 mph. He hit .282 and stole 22 bags, and his .293 wOBA still sits 29 points above a .264 xwOBA. He has elite wheels, but he’s no threat anywhere else.

1. Cedric Mullins, TB (CF)

Cedric Mullins holds the worst expected line in baseball at a .262 xwOBA, 71 points below the .333 pool average. His offensive production sits at a .203 average, 4.1% barrels, 31.4% hard-hit, .281 wOBA is within 19 points, so there’s no rebound waiting. This is the level, not a slump.

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