The Yankees Reliever Confidence Index: April Edition

Four weeks into the season, the Yankees are riding high with the best record in the American League. Despite several key starters beginning the year on the IL, their rotation has been excellent and, even with a weeklong swoon, New York’s offense has scored the fourth-most runs in the league. The biggest area of concern has been a bullpen that’s ranked middle-of-the-pack and featured some alarming underperformers.

As I do each month in a given season, I’m going to take a look at the Yankees’ relievers to identify how manager Aaron Boone is deploying each and offer a verdict as to how much trust we can place in them moving forward.

Statistics below are as of the morning of April 24th.

The Closer

David Bednar

Recent results: 10.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 13 SO, 2.11 FIP, 7 Saves (in 8 opportunities)

Bednar has not been the dominant force he was after coming over at last year’s Trade Deadline, a stretch which earned him the Yankees’ closer job. Only 3 of his 11 appearances have been clean outings, as the right-hander—known for his ability to pitch around traffic—has been forced to live up to that reputation. After a rough start, though, he appears to have settled in, rattling off scoreless innings his last four times out.

Confidence Level: High

Bednar’s peripherals, including a 2.50 ERA, suggest he’s pitched into some bad luck. He’s actually allowing much less hard contact than he did last year and, for the first time in his career, inducing opponents to put the ball on the ground at an elite rate. Weakly-hit grounders are surely a formula for success. Expect Bednar to continue to put his early-season blip in the rearview.

The Setup Man

Camilo Doval

Recent results: 10 IP, 7.56 ERA, 8 SO, 4.71 FIP

After doing little to augment their bullpen this offseason, the Yankees were counting on a resurgence from Doval. There was reason to believe — despite struggling in the second half after joining New York last year, the righty looked more like the pitcher who’d saved 107 games for San Francisco during the previous five seasons. The early returns have been abysmal. He’s allowed multiple runs three times this month, the types of showings which swing games in the late innings. Doval has limited walks after free passes plagued him last year but he’s allowing far more hard contact and struggling to induce groundballs (think Bizarro Bednar).

Confidence Level: Low

Doval may well have already lost the setup job; he hasn’t pitched since April 17th, which also happens to be the last traditional setup opportunity the Yankees have had. Boone gave his embattled reliever a show of confidence after his last poor outing. “Really, it’s back-to-back outings where I think he’s been really good, really sharp,” the skipper said, somewhat implausibly. “I feel like he’s close to being really dialed in.” Time will tell.

The Middle Relievers

Fernando Cruz 

Recent results: 7.1 IP, 2.45 ERA, 10 SO, 3.69 FIP

A late bloomer if ever there was one, a 35-year-old Cruz burst onto the scene in the first half last year, riding a filthy splitter to a 3.00 ERA while punching out 54 in 33 innings. After trailing off in the second half, it was fair to wonder if that run of dominance was a flash in the pan. Cruz’s stuff has looked nasty so far, as he’s posted the lowest hard-hit percentage (13.3) in the league. But only two AL relievers have a higher walk rate, showing the potential for boom-and-bust in his game.

Confidence Level: Medium

Cruz has performed well, but his walk rate is wholly unsustainable. If he can improve his control, he has a potential to be a difference-maker in the back end of the bullpen. If not, his numbers could quickly nosedive.

Brent Headrick

Recent results: 13 IP, 2.08 ERA, 14 SO, 2.15 FIP

After shuttling between the Yankees and their Triple-A affiliate last year, Headrick has been the biggest surprise in the bullpen so far. The southpaw has tied for the most appearances in baseball while riding a dynamic four-seamer — against which opponents have hit .160 — to strong numbers. His splits have been reversed to a startling extent, with righties posting a feeble .429 OPS against him while his fellow lefties have feasted to the tune of a 1.195 mark.

Confidence Level: Medium

Despite his solid start, the splits and 3.87 expected ERA raise some red flags. In the developing late-inning vacuum created by Doval’s struggled, Headrick will get the chance to show if his newfound dominance is sustainable. We don’t even need to attach a qualifier next to “will,” as Boone has him on pace for a number of appearances that can best be described as “Scott Proctor level.” The Yankees clearly like Headrick, and if anything, they might need to ease up on him — at least a little bit.

Tim Hill

Recent results: 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 3 SO, 2.55 FIP

In a world in which relievers’ fortunes seemingly change by the week, you can set your watch by Tim Hill. He’s posted a 2.53 ERA in 115 appearances as a Yankee, neutralizing lefties while holding his own against righties. The sinkerballer has been at his extreme best this year — he’s yet to allow a walk or a barrel while posting a ridiculous 80-percent ground-ball rate that easily leads baseball.

Confidence Level: High

Hill’s consistency makes it difficult to find anything new to say about him. As I’ve written in pretty much every instance of this series, the 36-year-old remains one of the biggest bargains in baseball. The Yankees are fortunate to have his steady hand as an anchor of their bullpen.

The Long Relievers

Ryan Yarbrough

Recent results: 8 IP, 5.63 ERA, 4 SO, 5.64 FIP

Yarbrough had a run last year that made him something of a folk hero in the Bronx, going 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA through his first five starts to help stabilize an embattled rotation. That showcase earned him a return engagement on a $2.5 million plus incentives deal. The journeyman’s numbers are inflated by a four-run outing against the Angels on April 16th, and he hasn’t pitched since.

Confidence Index: Low

While his impressive run last year provides a glimmer of hope, the breadth of Yarbrough’s career makes that look like a wonderful outlier. Expect him to remain in a low-leverage, innings-eater role.

Paul Blackburn

Recent results: 8 IP, 4.50 ERA, 5 SO, 3.02 FIP

Despite struggling with both New York teams last year, the Yankees took a flier on Blackburn on a similar deal to Yarbrough’s. He’s performed slightly better so far in a similar role, though there’s little in his profile or peripherals to suggest a breakout on the horizon.

Confidence Level: Low

See above. Blackburn is a righty Yarbrough, serving as a veteran long reliever with little upside.

The Mop-Up Men

Jake Bird

Recent results: 7 IP, 7.71 ERA, 9 SO, 2.43 FIP

A disappointment after joining the Yankees from Colorado last deadline, Bird got a shot at redemption after cracking the team’s roster out of spring. But he allowed six runs in seven innings and it was back down to Triple-A. The righty has allowed far too much hard contact to consistently get outs at the major-league level. Called back up this week as depth with starter Ryan Weathers landing on the paternity list, Bird has yet to be used and is extremely likely to return to Scranton/Wilkes-Barre once Weathers is activated.

Confidence Level: Nonexistent

Bird remains a talented reclamation project, best suited to work through his command issues in the minors.

Angel Chivilli

Recent results: 2.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 3 SO, 11.29 FIP

Another former Rockie, Chivilli started the year at Triple-A. He was recalled after tossing 8.1 scoreless innings but has yet to see much action with the Yankees. The right-hander features elite fastball velo but has struggled to turn that into commensurate strikeout rates, leading his new team to up his changeup usage.

Confidence Level: Nonexistent

The jury’s still out here. Chivilli has some promise but has not yet been given enough runway to establish any kind of confidence.