UFC OKC Prime Picks: Why youth could be the winning bet

We at Sherdog remain constantly active for major events, such as the regular in-depth “Shillan & Duffy” preview show and the “Sheehan Show” for all sorts of related matters including betting. With those official sources for picks handled, we would like to take the edge off here and get a bit lighter with our breakdowns.

The industry of sports betting is exploding before our very eyes, with billions of dollars pumping in since legalization stateside. Oftentimes, those driving the lines are right on the money with their openings, valuations and analyses. Occasionally, they are way off, or otherwise merit some additional conversation. That is where we come in with this reinvigorated series of Prime Picks, where, stealing a line from game show host Sam Reich, we hold hands and jump into the abyss that is the road Ultimate Fighting Championship card of UFC Oklahoma City. Try it out.

UFC Oklahoma City betting picks and the youth advantage

“Youthful exuberance” (+137)

Dricus Du Plessis (-230)
Christian Leroy Duncan (-350)
Chase Hooper (-350)

The passing of the torch. The old lion against the young thundercat. The grizzled veteran against the burgeoning prospect. All of those expressions, while a bit on the overused side, do tend to apply. The UFC makes a habit of pointing out during the Tale of the Tape that younger fighters beat the older, showing that age gaps of X years have a Y win percentage. The wider the gap, the more often those younger combatants have prevailed. Correlation does not equal causation, and those factors ignore a myriad of variables including strength of schedule, situational matchups, environmental influences, training preparation and any number of intangible that some believe play into a fight. That said, it is a fact that cannot be ignored.

The combat sports game is nigh-impossible to predict perfectly. Who genuinely expected that Justin Gaethje would beat up Ilia Topuria and take his lunch money? Likely the former miner’s folks, teammates, twin brother Marcus and two sisters, but that is about it. When breaking fights down, we do what we can with the information we are given and review. Some experts in the sport even have the luxury to study hours of tape, like the aforementioned Keith Shillan and Ben Duffy ahead of every longform preview show.

Can Du Plessis, 32, beat Usman, 39? Absolutely. Will the age play a factor in the pairing? Almost certainly. The closest line of the three in this accumulator, this seems the riskiest given that we just watched the South African get ragdolled for 25 agonizing minutes as Khamzat Chimaev tossed him around like a chew toy. Usman could do the same, as he is wont to do, and even displayed a similar approach when he shut down Rafael dos Anjos—although that happened nearly eight years ago. It will likely hinge on if the raging “Stillknocks” can keep the fight standing, while also maintaining a high level of activity despite the looming threat of the takedown. It’s doable, and should he turn the tables on Usman and drag him to the mat, a little would go a long way.

With Duncan stepping into the co-headliner a significant 12 years the younger, this contest is a meeting of the proverbial escalators. The Brit is on his way up, his sole blemish the last two years against the dangerous, underrated Gregory Rodrigues. Even though “Robocop” is the only person that Cannonier has defeated in that same span of time, MMA math is far from infallible and appeared rather that Cannonier just had more in the tank for that specific appearance. It is true that “CLD” has never gone through a knock-down, drag-out slobberknocker in the Octagon. Cannonier could provide that challenge, although the Alaskan has shown that he may have reached the age cliff where he has slipped just enough to fall out of the top echelon of middleweight.

Finally, the UFC has been on team Hooper since the beginning, and this matchmaking decision is a clear indication. Even with Hooper on his first career losing streak, the 26-year-old’s 8-5 record indicates that he is still leagues above the Utahan who has yet to get his hand raised in the Octagon. Thiago Moises is no easy test for a debut, and “Beast Boy” Mike Davis thrashed him with a flying knee. Luckily for the man seven years the elder, Ramirez will not be as likely to face that kind of firepower. Unfortunately for him, his ground game is far from complete. Look for Hooper to do the things he does, including and not limited to an Imanari roll to go for a leglock should he get his chin checked. Time and tide wait for no man, and that includes talented mixed martial artists.

Women and the over (+102)

Tabatha Ricci vs. Fatima Kline lasts over 2.5 rounds (-385)
Anna Melisano vs. Dione Barbosa lasts over 1.5 rounds (-165)

We mean this with all due respect: statistically and historically speaking, women tend to spend more time in the cage than their male counterparts. Finish rates are significantly lower for women, and this is a trend we first calculated when studying the Invicta Fighting Championships organization. This is not to say the bouts are any less entertaining, nor are we making any assertions regarding skill, divisional parity or anything of the sort. For instance, in 2025, exactly 15% of all bouts in the UFC came in women’s divisions. The stoppage rate of those matches clocked in just under 35.6%, well beneath the overall in-cage average in the promotion last year at exactly 50%.

When looking at the track records of the ladies in what could be a major one at 115 pounds between Ricci and Kline, Ricci has gone the distance in 10 of her 16 pro outings while Kline has needed the full time allotment in five of her 10 professional matches. To further emphasize this line’s value—one that is just a bit too steep to recommend on its own—Kline has reached this line’s over (2:30 of Round 3) in eight of her 10 fights. Neither woman has fallen before the final bell in their respective UFC tenure, and it does not look likely that this pattern will break on Saturday.

The math is similar for the early prelim of Melisano vs. Barbosa. The former may have finished her foe in her last three walks to the Fury FC cage, but a) the UFC is another animal entirely and 2) those three were preceded by three consecutive decisions. “The Witch,” on the other hand, has eight of 13 needing every one of the 900 seconds she was given, win or lose. Both 125ers do have a single stoppage loss on their respective ledgers, but this one has the makings of a full-length endeavor unless “Anna Bandana” suffers such a serious adrenaline dump that Barbosa takes advantage and ties her up like a pretzel. If that happens, it would likely be later, as in beyond the halfway point of the second stanza, so the over and this two-piece should be solid.