What will happen at the 2026 Rhode Island State Amateur? History.

SEEKONK – Day 2 of qualifying play at the 2026 Rhode Island State Amateur wasn’t about moving up the leaderboard. With rain falling all day and winds picking up later, it was about survival.

Bobby Leopold survived a three-putt bogey on his opening hole and went on to shoot a 1-over 72, giving him a two-day score of 67-72-139 and medalist honors. Players who left Ledgemont Country Club at 7-over par hoping to make a playoff survived and were inside the cutline. Seven players will return Wednesday morning, trying to survive a playoff and earn the final spot in the match play portion of the tournament.

While the weather is set for a dramatic 180 for the rest of the week – minus potential storms Friday – survival will be the word of the day for the next two rounds. Match play is a different animal and keeping a steady hand as you ride the ups and downs is how you end up a champion.

So who will be the winner this week? You could wait for Friday – or you could check out predictions below.

First Round Picks

Six players will battle for the No. 32 seed, but honestly there’s no point. Bobby Leopold isn’t losing the first match of the day.  In a battle of two former Rhode Island All-Staters, No. 17 Cole Vieira is the pick over No. 16 Jasper Bruin Slot because his lefthandedness will prove to be advantageous – just don’t ask me how.

Anything can happen in a matchup between college players, so we’ll take No. 8 Shawn Clary – a rising sophomore at Bryant – over No. 25 Adam Gorman – a rising junior at York College – simply because Clary is 6-foot-3 and should be able to dunk. No. 9 Harry Dessel is a slam-dunk pick over No. 24 David Marshall because Dessel is a robot sent from the future to compete for RIGA titles.

No. 4 Sam Powell is the favorite over No. 29 Tyler Cooke, but Cooke is the pick because the Rhode Island State Amateur should be won by Rhode Islanders. No. 13 Brendan Lemp and No. 20 Jesse Hellring have the best name matchup and you’re crazy if you think we’re not picking Hellring to win that one.

No. 5 Max Jackson looks locked in and is the pick over No. 28 Nate Winsor. Our final matchup in the top half of the bracket sees No. 12 John Jackopsic – who played at Boston College – taking on No. 21 Matthew Costello – a rising junior at UConn – and since this isn’t a hockey game, we’re taking the Costello because he plays for a school that is actually trying to win athletic competitions.

Moving down to the bottom half, I’m going to avoid my Metacomet bias and take No. 2 Nathan Davis over No. 31 Antonio Torres, who plays out of MetLinks. No. 18 Jason Kalin has a terrific record in RIGA events, but there’s one guy in the field who has more Instagram followers than me so I’ll pick No. 15 Sonny Kollet in this one.

I expect No. 7 Kevin Silva to go on a deep run, but I’ll pick Prout All-Stater Rocco Capalbo – seeded 26^th – in the upset because I’m biased toward the kid I’ve covered in high school. I’m not taking No. 10 Jake Bauer over No. 23 Roland Gibson for this reason; Bauer’s just built to win and will be out for vengeance after falling in last year's final.

Defending champ Mike Calef – seeded third – won’t lose in the first round against No. 30 Matt Shubley and we’re going to need No. 13 Tim Carroll to get a win over No. 19 Henry Sheehan to set up some friendly fire among clubmates for the next round.

Kevin Blaser has a State Am title to his name, but he’s also entering the stage of life where playing early-morning golf after two rain-soaked days proves tougher than you it did in previous years. No. 27 Drew MacLeod – the Providence Journal High School Player of the Year – is the pick and if he wins this, he could very well win the whole thing.

In the final matchup of the bottom half of the bracket, we’re going to take the best athlete in the tournament – No. 11 Austin Cilley, a former Westerly star hooper – to take down No. 22 John Drohen.

Round of 16 predictions

We’re going to run the football here, as Vieira’s left-handed wizardry runs its course against Leopold, the tournament’s true magician. Dessel is giving up height to Clary, but when you’re a stone-cold killer it doesn’t matter so we’ll send him right to Thursday’s quarterfinal.

There are infinite puns with Hellring vs. Cooke, so let’s take Hellring and see if one of the copy editors makes us change to [expletive]ring. Jackson vs. Costello is a lock for extra holes, but Jackson’s All-State soccer background means he has the endurance needed to grab the win.

Kollet needs to beat Davis for the memes and since it’s his home course, he’ll be the pick here. Capalbo will give Bauer fits, but Bauer’s experience will be the difference.

It’ll be curious to see if some Wanumetonomy take the short trip to Seekonk to check our Calef vs. Carroll in a match where bragging rights might mean more than moving on. Calef gets by in a tough one. It’s hard to pick against MacLeod, but his go-for-bust approach could prove fruitful. He’s the pick in an upset over Cilley and hopefully he’ll have enough time to get the Journal All-State photo shoot afterward.

Quarterfinal round

You want a statement? Here’s one – whoever wins the Leopold-Dessel match wins the tourney. This will be the most boring match on the planet, filled with nothing but great golf and absolutely no celebrations. Jackson sends Hellring to the depths and earns the other semifinal spot.

Bauer will be a runaway favorite over Kollet, but I’m curious to see if Kollet’s social media following comes through and interested parties show up to watch him play. Maybe a full gallery – or at least the RIGA version – gets to Bauer and the Cranston West alum grab pulls off an upset on his home course. Sure, why not.

MacLeod, hopefully armed with his brand new All-State bracelet, will jump out big early against Calef, but the defending champ’s consistency will allow him to weather the storm, come back and pick up the win.

Semifinal predictions

I know I just said whoever wins Leopold-Dessel will win the tournament but I’m going back on that because I think what happened Monday and Tuesday will greatly affect the older players. Jackson still has infinite energy and while Leopold is far from an old-timer, Jackson’s steady play and ability to never get tired earns him a spot in the final.

Kollet’s magic runs out here. Calef is too good and even if all 200,000 of Kollet’s followers show up, Calef won’t be spooked. Calef wins and Kollet will now have to deal with a 9.4 handicap (no big deal) sending him DMs looking for both golf and social media advice.

Who will win the 2026 RI State Amateur?

Calef has a chance to become a legend, with a win making him the 15^th player to win back-to-back State Amateurs, the 11^th since World War II and the third in the last 25 years.

But it’s not happening.

Max Jackson’s game has matured. He won two state titles thanks to accuracy and his short-game play, but as he got bigger and stronger he added distance but lost precision. It’s back and we’re seeing Jackson turn into the player we thought he could have been when he played in his first State Amateur at a 14-year old.

I was at Pawtucket Country Club when Jackson debuted and, provided the weather behaves, will be there Friday for what could be another historic first.

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: What will happen at the 2026 Rhode Island State Amateur? History.