Giants predicted to make unexpected Luis Arraez decision by MLB trade deadline

Jul 25, 2026 - 15:45

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Giants predicted to make unexpected Luis Arraez decision by MLB trade deadline originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

The San Francisco Giants are one of the more obvious sellers for the 2026 MLB trade deadline, and they have plenty of players who could draw interest.

Of the players on the roster, Robbie Ray and Luis Arraez are the two most likely players to be traded this summer, as they're both in the final year of their contracts and will hit free agency after the 2026 season.

CBS Sports' Mike Axisa is predicting that instead of trading Arraez, the Giants will instead make the unexpected decision to sign him to a contract extension despite all of the investments made into the team financially over the last few seasons.

Giants predicted to sign Luis Arraez to an extension, not trade him

"The Giants will extend Luis Arraez, not trade him," Axisa predicts. "... I boldly predict that president of baseball operations Buster Posey will pivot and instead sign Arraez to an extension. Let's call it three years in the $15 million-per-year range."

If this prediction were to come true, it would be a big surprise. There might not be a player whom all of the Major League Baseball insiders expect to be traded more than Arraez.

As a second baseman who has posted 3.0 bWAR this season with a .324 batting average, good defense, and is a fairly affordable rental, Arraez will have a ton of suitors lining up to make offers this summer.

The Giants, as clear-cut sellers, have no reason to hold onto Arraez. That is, unless they work out a contract extension like Axisa is predicting will happen.

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There are just a few issues. Firstly, the Giants don't have a lot of financial leeway to sign Arraez with the $100 million-plus invested into Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, and Willy Adames right now.

To make matters even more complicated, the Giants need to clear the way for Casey Schmitt and Bryce Eldridge to get everyday starting opportunities, and trading Arraez might be the easiest way of opening up more playing time.

But that's not the only reason why this prediction would be a huge surprise. Arraez and the Giants reportedly haven't had extension talks. That's a huge hurdle to this prediction coming true, and no signs have pointed towards any extension talks manifesting yet.

This prediction from Axisa would be a huge surprise if it came true, as the Giants trading away Arraez this summer is all but a guarantee at this rate. Even though in an ideal world, he signs long-term, it's just not a realistic option for the Giants in 2026.