Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: Chilly, But Odds In Favor Of A Fast Track

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, and as a meteorologist who spent several years working in the "Derby City," the weather can be all over the place this time of year.

The derby is always held the first Saturday in May, meaning the actual calendar dates change every year and so can the weather.

The National Weather Service in Louisville has kept records of the weather that occurred on every Oaks and Derby Day since the 1800s.

(MORE: Latest Louisville Forecast Details)

Kentucky Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks is always held the Friday before the derby. This race showcases the young female horses (3-year-old fillies).

(MORE: How Weather, Breeding And AI Could Reshape Horse Racing)

We can't rule out light showers Friday morning, but the forecast trends drier later in the day. So the odds are in favor of a fast track for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Oaks with a post time of 8:40 p.m. ET. Unlike last year when highs hit 80 degrees, this year will be much cooler with highs only around 60 degrees, meaning most of the day will be spent in the 50s.

The average high and low temperatures in Louisville on May 1-2 are 74 and 54 degrees, respectively.

Kentucky Derby

The post time for the 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby is slated for 6:57 p.m. EDT Saturday.

Unlike last year, the odds are in favor of a fast track this year. On and off rain showers led to a wet and sloppy track during the "Run For The Roses" on May 3, 2025. And if you thought 65 degrees was cool last year, this year will be even cooler, in fact chilly, in my opinion.

Highs are only expected to climb into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds, so this year is all about the layers. A brisk northwest wind blowing at 10-15 mph may get under a few hats or fascinators, so be sure to secure those well if heading to the track.

(MORE: How Weather Can Affect Horses At The Kentucky Derby)

Tiffany Savona is a digital meteorologist for weather.com. She has 15+ years of experience tracking storms as a broadcast meteorologist across the country.