Series Preview: Padres host Blue Jays prior to All-Star Break

The All-Star break can't come fast enough for the San Diego Padres. 

After splitting a four-game series with the division-rival Arizona Diamondbacks, the Friars find themselves in an uncomfortable situation. San Diego (46-47) sits 5.5 games back of the third and final Wild Card spot in the National League behind the surprise Miami Marlins, who just rattled off a 20-6 record in the month of June.

With the division well out of reach (14.5 games back of the Los Angeles Dodgers) and a number of teams ahead in the hunt, president of baseball operations AJ Preller might have no choice but to do something completely out of his aggressive nature — sell at the trade deadline. 

However. as history has shown, Preller is much more inclined to ship prospects away for proven talent rather than acquire them from other teams. If San Diego hopes to rediscover its early-season success before the August 4 deadline, the Padres will need to start turning things around this weekend against last season's American League champion Toronto Blue Jays at Petco Park.

Toronto concludes its nine-game west coast road trip with a three games in San Diego looking finish the first half of the regular season on a positive note. The Blue Jays enter the series following back-to-back dominant victories over the San Francisco Giants, which included veteran right-hander Dylan Cease taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning in a 10-0 blowout win. 

Coming into the season, Toronto was seen as a club ready to replicate its success from last season after coming two outs away from a World Series title. Unfortunately for the Jays, they have been unable to build off their 94-win season from a year ago and sit 11.0 games back of the Tampa Bay Rays in the American League East. Despite being five games under the .500 mark through 93 games, Toronto sits just 2.5 games back of the Seattle Mariners in the Wild Card race. 

For most of the season, Toronto has displayed inconsistent play, failing to hold a winning record since April 3. A lineup that led the majors in batting average and on-base percentage while finishing inside the top three in OPS last season now ranks near the bottom of the league in several offensive categories, including a tie for 26th in slugging percentage (.383) and 24th in wRC+ (92). The Blue Jays also rank in the bottom five in runs scored, averaging just 4.04 runs per game. A large chunk of the offensive decline can be attributed to the struggles of their superstar first baseman.

On the surface, it would appear that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in midst of another strong year at the plate due to his sixth consecutive All-Star game selection. However, if you dig deeper, you'd be able to see that Guerrero is currently having the worst offensive year of his eight-year career. The 27-year-old has clubbed just five home runs this season while maintaining the lowest slugging percentage (.351) and wRC+ (96) since he entered the majors in 2019 as a 20-year-old highly touted prospect. The first baseman just concluded the worst full month of his career, owning a .498 OPS in the month of June. 

As for the pitching staff, Cease has played the role of ace for Toronto — posting a 2.56 ERA while striking out the second-most batters in baseball with 148 in 98.1 innings. The righty could be a potential option alongside New York Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler to start the All-Star Game in Philadelphia with manager John Schneider leading the American League club. 

“It kind of works out to where he’ll (Cease) be on pretty normal rest and it kind of works out that we won the American League last year and we have the say who starts," Schneider said.

The biggest bright spot for Toronto this season has come from third baseman Kazuma Okamoto, who signed with the Blue Jays in the offseason after a successful career with the Yomiuri Giants in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league. The 30-year-old has blasted a team-high 21 homers and 59 RBIs in 90 games this season. 

On San Diego's side, their issue remains crystal clear. The offense is one of the worst in baseball — if not the worst. The club ranks dead last in average (.225), on-base percentage (.300) and OPS (.671). Manny Machado is having by far the worst year of his 15-year career. And he leads the team homers and RBIs. The left side of the infield (Machado and Xander Bogaerts) each carry salaries north of 25 million per season and own a combined 1.8 WAR this season. That is a less than ideal recipe for success. 

The Padres' bullpen is the one thing that has kept this team alive. Mason Miller, the flamethrowing closer who some believe could be one of the most intriguing trade pieces, is tied with Phillies closer Jhoan Duran for the National League lead in saves with 23. RHP Yuki Matsui, RHP Jason Adam, LHP Adrian Morejon and LHP Wandy Peralta have helped stabilize a unit that leads the NL in bullpen ERA (3.46). 

An interleague series featuring strong starting pitching and below-average offenses could produce a string of low-scoring matchups between two teams fighting to improve postseason hopes.

Friday, July 10, 6:40 p.m.: RHP Shane Bieber (0-1, 9.00 ERA) vs. LHP JP Sears (2-1, 4.70 ERA)

Bieber takes the ball in the series opener searching for his first win of the season after making his season debut on June 23. The 31-year-old is looking to bounce back after a poor start against Seattle in which he surrendered seven runs on six hits in four innings. The righty has allowed six homers in 13.0 innings this season after giving up just three in 18.2 innings in last year's postseason. Sears is coming off his best performance as a Padre, shutting out the Dodgers in five innings and allowing just one hit in the 5-2 win.

Saturday, July 11, 5:40 p.m.: RHP Trey Yesavage (4-4, 3.31 ERA) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (5-5, 5.07 ERA)

In his first full season in the majors, Yesavage continues to make his presence known in the Toronto rotation. Since making his season debut against Boston on April 28, the 22-year-old has collected five quality starts and 68 strikeouts in 73.1 innings. San Diego will counter the young righty with Walker Buehler, who is coming off two of his worst starts in his career. The 31-year-old has allowed 16 runs in his last two outings, headlined by five homers in nine innings. The veteran ended the month of June with an ERA below four. Now, it's above five. 

Sunday, July 12, 1:10 p.m.: RHP Kevin Gausman (4-8, 4.32 ERA) vs. RHP German Marquez (4-2, 5.02 ERA)

Gausman makes his 20th start of the season in the final game before the All-Star break while Marquez searches for his fifth win in his first season with San Diego.