Tigers Contemplate Casey Mize's Future as Playoff Hopes Fade

As the chances of the Detroit Tigers making the postseason shrink, so does the possibility of them becoming active sellers ahead of the MLB trade deadline. Currently, FanGraphs indicates the Tigers have only a 9.5 percent likelihood of reaching the playoffs, placing them above just two other teams in the American League: the Kansas City Royals and Los Angeles Angels.

Casey Mize, the first overall selection in the 2018 MLB Draft, has experienced a rollercoaster career in Detroit, though his recent performance has shown promise. By the end of May, Mize's record stood at 2-3 with an impressive 2.27 ERA over nine starts. Despite a struggling team that finished the month with a 22-38 record, he has managed to average more than a strikeout per inning and posted a commendable 0.97 WHIP.

While Mize's name is not the most prominent in trade discussions—this distinction belongs to left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal, a two-time American League Cy Young Award winner currently on the injured list—his situation is complex. Mize is now 29 years old and his statistics indicate he is in the prime of his career. His ability to generate swings and misses, limit hard contact, and maintain a low walk rate (6.5 percent) positions him as a valuable asset should the Tigers decide to trade him before the August 3 deadline.

The Tigers could also consider retaining Mize, potentially allowing him to sign for less than what it would take to keep Skubal beyond this season. If Mize remains with the team and has a strong finish, he is likely to decline any qualifying offer, which is based on the average salary of MLB's top earners. However, if the Tigers can secure a significant package of prospects for Skubal, the draft-pick compensation for Mize if he departs in 2027 may encourage them to let him finish the season in Detroit.

The Tigers' rapid decline in the American League has been shocking, prompting President of Baseball Operations Scott Harris to weigh the benefits of trading Skubal for a large prospect haul versus a full rebuild if the team's struggles persist. Depending on the direction the organization chooses, Mize could find himself still in Detroit after the trade deadline, or become part of a potential swap as one of the team's top assets.