Plenty has changed in one year for Keaton Wagler

May 16—CHICAGO — Keaton Wagler's biggest concern a year ago at this time was getting ready for his party after graduating from Shawnee Mission Northwest High School.

He also couldn't escape a bit of nervousness about his impending move to Champaign, and the start of his college basketball career was also on his mind.

Wagler knew what most people thought as he made the move from two-time state champion out of the Kansas City suburbs to the Big Ten. That the best-case scenario would see him play a small role for Illinois — if at all — on a team that returned Kylan Boswell, landed Andrej Stojakovic out of the transfer portal and brought a 21-year-old Serbian point guard on board in Mihailo Petrovic.

The reality a year later?

Wagler was drastically under-recruited and underestimated. Few outside the state of Kansas or Champaign knew his name last May.

Now, he's a projected lottery pick — potentially even a top-five pick — in the 2026 NBA draft.

"A year ago, I didn't think this is where I would be," Wagler said Wednesday at the NBA draft combine in Chicago. "I was probably nervous about going to Illinois and trying to get a spot. It's definitely surreal. I'm definitely blessed. This doesn't happen to a lot of people — getting here and being projected as high as I am.

"Definitely a crazy year. Unexpected for sure. It goes into the work I put in and the confidence I had in myself knowing I can play against anyone in the world. I showcased that all year."

It took just 37 games across five-plus months for Wagler to go from on no one's mock draft to a potential top-five pick. The 6-foot-6 guard averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists in leading Illinois to the Final Four, earning Big Ten Freshman of the Year and consensus Second Team All-American honors in the process.

Boswell saw Wagler's NBA potential before all that. The veteran Illinois guard was one of the first to spread the news that his freshman teammate was "cold." A history of training and playing with pros — both from his high school days in California and at Arizona and Illinois — made Wagler's NBA potential clear.

"You can just tell sometimes," Boswell said. Teaming up with Caleb Love and Pelle Larsson at Arizona and then Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley at Illinois, the veteran Illini guard added, fine tuned his NBA radar.

"I've just been around guys who were going to go to the NBA," Boswell continued. "There's just certain talents. I've gotten a vibe and a tell if somebody's an NBA player. From the first workout with me and Keaton, it was just pretty evident that guy was going to go the NBA.

"I think his poise and his calmness as a player — especially how young he is and how big of situation he's been put in — it's a one-of-a-kind special talent. You can't really teach that kind of stuff. He was great with his decision-making — always making the right play — and his ability to catch and shoot off the ball, he can knock it down at any point in time."

That insight into Wagler's game spread across the country during the 2025-26 college basketball season. Word out of Ubben Basketball Complex during the summer and early fall, at minimum, had Wagler on the radar for NBA organizations.

His draft stock solidified with a breakout performance against Tennessee in early December, a 46-point game at Purdue and four months of consistent production for one of the top teams in the country.

"Listen, it's surreal to me because I played with him and I've seen him in every environment," Stojakovic said about Wagler's high-level draft prospects. "You don't really quite notice those things throughout the year. I feel like we were so focused as a team, at the task every single game, and we really didn't look ahead.

"The feedback he's getting, I'm so proud of him. He's still that little kid. He's still oblivious to everything. The last couple weeks he's grown tremendously just because he's had to learn more of the business side of things moving into the draft. He's done a great job of holding his poise. He was a little disappointed a couple days ago at the shooting — he knows he's a better shooter than what he showed — but we all know what he can do and he deserves everything that's coming toward him."

Last weekend's lottery secured the order of selection come the draft in June. It also formalized where Wagler might start his professional basketball career, with a small range of destinations likely.

The deciding factor will be the player NBA organizations value more from a group of one-and-done guards all clumped together on most draft boards and in nearly every mock draft.

Wagler finds himself in competition with the likes of Arkansas' Darius Acuff Jr., Houston's Kingston Flemings, Louisville's Mikel Brown Jr. and Arizona's Brayden Burries.

Wagler said he's trying not to focus on the comparisons between his game and the other guards in his draft range. His goal is to continue to be himself in any interview, continue to play the kind of basketball in any workouts, that got him to this point in the first place.

But Wagler isn't shy about pinpointing what would make him a good draft choice. Even in comparison to a slew of other impressive one-and-done guards in this year's draft.

"I think I'm just super versatile being able to play multiple positions — not just point guard or just shooting guard," said Wagler, who said he's tried to pattern parts of his game off Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Alexander-Gilgeous and Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton. Big guards who attack at their own pace.

"I've heard it my whole life that I'm not the most athletic, not the fastest," Wagler continued. "But all last year I think I showed you don't have to be the most athletic to score the ball or be a really good player. That's what I did. I find different ways to use my body even though I'm not the strongest.

"Being the aggressor. Using my change of pace getting into the lane. Being able to play on or off the ball. Being able to play with other really good players is a skill that I think have, knowing when it's my time and when it's someone else's time."

The next month-plus will solidify Wagler's place among the top picks in the draft. It's only a matter of when, not if, he'll hear his name called June 23 when the NBA descends on Brooklyn, N.Y., in its now annual start-of-summer tradition.

Far from the post-freshman year summer Wagler was expecting to have a year ago.

"(Going to Illinois) was definitely the best decision I've made in my basketball career so far," he said. "It's awesome to see how well it worked out, seeing that most people thought my first year I probably wouldn't even play."