Storm Warning: Turbulence projected in Tucson

A headliner matchup from the start of the season, the No. 2 Arizona Wildcats play host to the No. 6 Iowa State Cyclones on the first “Big Monday” of March. Iowa State is entering Tucson in a funk, losing two of their last three and carrying a 4-4 record on the road in conference play. After losing two in a row, Arizona has rebounded in their late season gauntlet by winning their last four, including wins at home over Kansas and BYU and handing Houston their only loss in space city. An 8 o.m. tipoff, I am setting the line for segments including Caleb Love’s half court shot at 3.5. 

The lack of urgency is concerning

Since the win against Houston two weeks ago, Iowa State has looked a bit lackluster. They have lost two of their last three, and while the two losses are still against solid opponents, I don’t think they lost primarily due to X’s and O’s. There was a severe lack of intensity during their game against Tech, and the first half deficit was too great for them to overcome. 

Outside of their wins over Kansas and Houston, Iowa State has looked flat in a lot of their games since their midweek break at the start of February. Two ugly endings against Baylor and TCU bookended by some uninspired performances against BYU and Texas Tech, and the difficult stretch is taking its toll on the fluidity of the team. Starting the season as one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, Iowa State has shot just 33% from distance in their last seven. Arizona has the best three-point defense in the conference, allowing just 30.3% during conference play. 

Panic Button: Killyan Toure

In his last seven games, Killyan Toure has averaged just 4.3 points per game and is shooting 12-36 from the field paired with 3-15 from deep. Texas Tech exploited this by leaving him open on multiple attempts as he went scoreless on 0-7 shooting. 

While everyone knows his strengths are on defense, his lack of offensive spark is at the detriment of the rest of the offense due to the defenders removing space from Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson. Toure has registered less than 20 minutes in his last two games, and I believe this will continue until he forces defenses to respect him as a threat. 

If you haven’t heard, Arizona is good

This will be the toughest game of the season, and this was common knowledge back in October. Arizona boasts the eighth best offensive and third best defensive ratings on Kenpom, while Iowa State ranks 18th and eighth respectively. A two game skid against Kansas and Texas Tech are the only two blemishes on their resume, but a wire to wire loss at Allen Fieldhouse and a loss in OT are hardly games to panic about for a team that has been projected as a one seed from the jump. 

A large factor for Arizona’s success is their depth. They boast seven players that average at least nine points per game, with six of them assuming top scorer responsibilities in conference games. Every player on the court will be a threat at all times, which could stretch the Iowa State defense thin if their aggressive trapping allows the Wildcats to find the open shot. A lethal combination of the highest offensive field goal percentage and the lowest defensive field goal percentage in a conference with four teams in the most recent AP poll further demonstrates their prowess. 

This is a mighty test for the Cyclones, who are tasked to overcome their recent sluggish form in the toughest scenario on paper. ESPN still finds them as an underdog with a 24.5% chance to win and DraftKings favors the Wildcats by 7.5. That still creates a reasonable scenario for the Cyclones to overcome the circumstances, which will be built by these three factors. 

1. Rebounds, Rebounds, Rebounds. Arizona has the second best offensive rebound rate in conference play at 12.6 per game. The Wildcats also average the second lowest amount of turnovers per game at 9.4. While stopping this offense will be difficult, allowing second chance opportunities will make it near impossible. 
2. Everyone gets involved on offense. I am still a big stickler about having everyone on the court be a potential threat, as that thins out defenses very quickly. A couple of key shots from Heise and Batemon and some putbacks by Pleta and Bucannon, and suddenly the big 3 of Lipsey, Jefferson, and Momcilovic have a much easier time getting to work. 
3. Stay alive on free throws. The Cyclones are currently 338th nationally in team free throw percentage, but their past couple games have been a passable 72%. Every opportunity for easy points needs to be capitalized when those opportunities will be scarce, and that starts at the free throw line. 

Prediction: Arizona 72 – ISU 66